Via @williamjordann Happy US families ahead of WH2016YouGov US: 33% of men say spouse supports Clinton compared with 45% who say they are pic.twitter.com/3XoNjKLW86 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2016 The mug of a week tomorrow? pic.twitter.com/hlRuqgeUNd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2016
Clinton enjoys 15% lead in early voting Reuters/Ipsos poll finds https://t.co/xtM1L2Ozc9 pic.twitter.com/yoLU9ZNhlo — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 30, 2016 One of the reasons I like betting on US Presidential races is that there’s an awful lot of data made available before election day that allows you to see how people have voted that simply isn’t available in UK elections because of electoral law. This info helps influence my betting, so I like this from Ipsos and Reuters asking early voters how…
Embed from Getty Images Both Trump & Clinton have the potential to voluntarily be one term Presidents and that benefits their nominees for Vice President for the 2020 race. No, that headline wasn’t a typo, even before the winner of the 2016 race has been decided, Ladbrokes really do have a market up on who will win the 2020 White House race. I do wonder if both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, by choice, will be voluntary one term Presidents….
The race looks a lot tighter than it 24 hours ago What’s become almost the best guide to how WH2016 is going is how often it is Michelle Obama who is making the news. She was the star of the Democratic convention in August – an event that was certainly a turning point in the polling. Recently she’s been really forceful on Trump’s issues with women and last night made a big speech alongside Hillary in North Carolina which got…
Adam Jepsen on how markets might reaction to Trump doing it At the moment, it looks like Hillary Clinton is firmly priced-in to be the next President and that might be a reasonable assumption. However, the markets appear to be far too complacent with regards to the risk of Donald Trump becoming President. In fact, during the whole campaign the markets have been unfazed by the Republican. While the US dollar did strengthen after Clinton had a solid first Presidential TV…
But the signs from US early voting seems to back up the polls Twelve days to go before the US elects Barack Obama’s successor and so far at least the polling both national and in the key swing states suggests a return to the White House after a gap of 16 years for Hillary Clinton. This time, of course, as President not as First Lady. Following the wobble in August and September ahead of the first TV debate her polling…
Amazon The elections are not as comparable as they might appear There’s an ongoing argument that’s being made every day that Donald Trump can take heart from the fact that the BREXIT polling, betting and forecasts were wrong. Certainly there’s little doubt that in broad terms he appeals to the same demographic groups that backed LEAVE. He’s tapping into much of the anger that we saw in the referendum. In the betting we’ve also got what we experienced ahead of…
Also Trump didn't over-perform his polls in the primary. If anything the opposite happened. pic.twitter.com/UFVO6BvRLe — (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 22, 2016 If there are ‘Shy Trumpers’ you’d expect Donald Trump to have outperformed the polls during the primaries and caucuses. One of the more interesting theories posited during this White House race on why Donald Trump will become President is that the polls are wrong because there are shy Trumpers not being picked up in the polls. With Donald…