Also Trump didn't over-perform his polls in the primary. If anything the opposite happened. pic.twitter.com/UFVO6BvRLe
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 22, 2016
If there are ‘Shy Trumpers’ you’d expect Donald Trump to have outperformed the polls during the primaries and caucuses.
One of the more interesting theories posited during this White House race on why Donald Trump will become President is that the polls are wrong because there are shy Trumpers not being picked up in the polls. With Donald Trump proving to be the most controversial Presidential candidate since George Wallace, you can understand why some of his voters might be shy and embarrassed to tell pollsters about their true intention to vote for Donald Trump.
Harry Enten of fivethirtyeight has analysed Trump’s actual performance in the primaries & caucuses versus his performances in the polls, and we can see there’s no evidence of shy Trumpers, if there were shy Trumpers you’d expect Donald Trump to over perform his polling. I know primary & caucus elections are different to Presidential elections but on current evidence the term ‘Shy Trumpers’ causes real epistemological problems.