Is there a case for a Lib Dem sell? The Sporting Index Spread Market on the number of commons seats the parties will win at the general election has seen little movement in recent weeks – but could all that change after the conferences? Whether Nick Clegg manages to put things on a firmer footing in his speech this afternoon remains to be seen but given that this is the last big showcase before the general election the best that…
Punters continue to bet against Brown/Labour The latest version of the PB Index, which tries to extrapolate current betting prices into a general election outcome, has a projected Conservative majority four seats higher than when we last looked at this five days ago. The index is now pointing to an overall majority for the Tories of 62 seats – which is the highest it has ever been. The calculation is done by taking the seat ranges on the two spread…
What are we predicting will happen in Wales? I’m back in the Land of My Fathers this weekend to watch the Wales v Ireland Six Nations decider, and to see my folks for Sunday Lunch on Mothers’ Day. As timing would have it, last week I made a vague promise to take a look at what might happen in Wales at the next General Election. Being London-based, I’m sure there is much news from the ground of which I’m simply…
But will the next set of polls follow MORI? The panel show the latest spread betting levels on the three main markets. There will be 650 seats next time so to ensure a majority a party will need 325. As can be seen there is now something of a division between IG Index and PB’s co-sponsor, Sporting Index. It’s not often you see a gap as large as five seats in the Tory and Labour spreads between the two companies….
Do we expect further moves to Labour? As expected the latest Ipsos-MORI poll putting Labour just 3% behind has caused movement on the spread betting markets – the political betting arenas where you can win or lose whole piles of cash by trading the number of seats the parties will get at the general elecxtion as though they were stocks and shares. The latest spreads from from PB’s co-sponsor, Sporting Index are: CON 334-340: LAB 242-248: LD 42-45 seats. With…
Projected CON majority: 34 (+8) seats Whatever the rights and wrongs of yesterday’s fierce exchanges in the House of Commons the spread betting punters who risk shed-loads of cash on the commons seats markets have given their verdict by “buying” Conservative seats and “selling” Labour. On Tuesday, as I reported here after the Populus poll, the commons seat spreads from PB’s co-sponsor, Sporting Index were: CON 336-342: LAB 240-246: LD 43-46 seats. Taking the mid-point between the buy and the…