Spread punters still back a Tory majority – just!

Spread punters still back a Tory majority – just!

But will the next set of polls follow MORI?

The panel show the latest spread betting levels on the three main markets. There will be 650 seats next time so to ensure a majority a party will need 325.

As can be seen there is now something of a division between IG Index and PB’s co-sponsor, Sporting Index. It’s not often you see a gap as large as five seats in the Tory and Labour spreads between the two companies.

So if you want to “buy Labour” or “sell the Tories” the best place is Sporting Index. If you want to go the other way round try IG or Spreadfair – which is a betting exchange.

Generally these differences shake themselves out over time – but it’s just that at the moment IG seems to be attracting more money on Labour.

In the short-term everything depends on the next round of polling. We might get some surveys this weekend while next week we should see ComRes, ICM and YouGov.

A question punters are asking is about the extent that they can have faith in MORI – the pollster that always seems to show the extremes. In September 2007 it had the biggest Labour leads, in September 2008 it was the only pollster to put the Tories over 50%, and this week it recorded the smallest Tory lead six months.

Mike Smithson

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