Do we expect further moves to Labour?
As expected the latest Ipsos-MORI poll putting Labour just 3% behind has caused movement on the spread betting markets – the political betting arenas where you can win or lose whole piles of cash by trading the number of seats the parties will get at the general elecxtion as though they were stocks and shares.
The latest spreads from from PB’s co-sponsor, Sporting Index are: CON 334-340: LAB 242-248: LD 42-45 seats.
With IG Index it’s CON 332-338: LAB 244-250: LD 43-46 seats. On the Spreadfair spread-betting exchange the mid-points are CON 336: LAB 250: LD 43.
So the average mid-points suggests a Tory majority of 20-22.
Everything seems to depend now on the public reaction to next Monday’s pre-budget report from the chancellor. If the proposals here are popular you could see further movement on the markets.
My betting: I remain a Labour buyer and my positions have moved so that the level I bought at is now below the level I can sell – so I could cash in and pocket a profit today. I’ve now also sold the SNP at 10 seats. Salmond’s party is going to struggle to hold onto the seven seats they currently hold.