Betfair Politics What will it take to make NOM the favourite? The latest price from Ladbrokes on the election ending with no party having an overall majority has moved over the past seven days from 7/4 to 13/8. Thus the profit from a £100 winning bet would be £162.50 today rather than the £175 of last Monday. So there has been a tightening but not by very much. On the Betfair overall majority market the NOM of a week ago…
A guest slot by Matthew Shaddick (Shadsy) Here at Ladbrokes, we’ve now had prices available for all GB constituencies for a few weeks. A first in the world of political betting. Indeed we’ve been betting on some of these contests for over a year now. What are these 632 individual markets telling us about the overall election result? We thought we’d make an attempt to predict the election from the constituency level up with all of this useful information, which…
CON SPREAD RANGES 342 – 347 (nc) Sporting Index 346 – 349.5 (+1) Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 218 – 223 (nc) Sporting Index 213 – 218 (nc) Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 (nc) Sporting Index 53.5 – 54 (nc) Betfair Line market What further evidence do gamblers need? Yesterday before the two new polls came out there was a bit of speculation on one of the threads over what would happen on the commons…
CON SPREAD RANGES 342 – 347 Sporting Index 340 – 345 ExtraBet 346 – 349.5 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 218 – 223 Sporting Index 220 – 225 ExtraBet 213 – 218 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 Sporting Index 54 – 57 ExtraBet 53.5 – 54 Betfair Line market This is the first PB Index for nine days and it shows only a four seat drop in the projected Tory majority since February 13. The…
Does Rawnsley add to the case against the UNS? Tucked away in the Observer print edition of the Rawnsley book there are a couple of revealing passages which underline the case we’ve been making strongly on PB over the past fortnight on the Uniform National Swing – the simple way of estimating what given poll numbers mean in terms of commons seats at the election. On September 22nd 2007 Brown and his aides received a presentation on a marginals poll…
The Sun Get used to regular numbers every night Without much fanfare or advance warning the YouGov Daily Tracker for the Sun was launched overnight and shows a small deterioration in Labour’s position since the last published survey from the firm more than two and a half weeks ago. As can be seen the shares are CON 39%(+1): LAB 30%(-1): LD 18% (-1) – all within the margin of error but nothing to suggest that the much vaunted TV extravaganza…
(The above is a revised seat model by long-standing PBers and statistician, Andy Cooke – the first version of which was published here and here after two closely argued papers that questioned the standard orthodoxy about the UNS – the uniform national swing which is the traditional, if not always accurate of projecting the seat totals in the house of commons. Since then there have been no serious defences of the UNS except that this is how it has always…
House of Commons Research paper Will the markets gravitate again towards a UNS view? The above is a chart that features in a recent Commons research paper based on what happens if there’s a uniform swing across all constituencies from 2005 election adjusted for the notional 2005 results because of the boundary changes. So taking last night’s ComRes poll split of 40-29-21 the rigid application of the UNS formula has the Tories still short of a majority even though the…