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Category: Commons seat predictions

What vote lead will LAB/CON need for a majority?

What vote lead will LAB/CON need for a majority?

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Will we start to get an idea in September? On September 12th or 13th the boundary commissioners for England will produce their first proposals on how the electoral map should be re-drawn for the 2015 general election. The Scottish proposals are due out in October and the Welsh ones now look set to be published at about the same time. These will be critical documents and will allow Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus, Anthony Wells of YouGov UKPollingReport and others…

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Can the Tories ever rule on their own again?

Can the Tories ever rule on their own again?

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CON lead CON seats LAB seats LD seats OTH seats – 2.7% 239 326 59 26 0.0% 255 306 61 28 4.1% 282 281 59 28 7.3% 307 258 57 28 11.2% 327 233 62 28 What do these seat projections mean for next time? The table above features the new commons seat projections for the next election prepared by Professor John Curtice for Friday’s general election post-mortem at the University of Nottingham. As can be seen the Tories need…

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The 2010: UNS, Proportional Swing and all that…

The 2010: UNS, Proportional Swing and all that…

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Dr Rob Ford (University of Manchester), Dr Will Jennings (University of Manchester), Dr Mark Pickup (Simon Fraser University) and Professor Christopher Wlezien (Temple University) reflect upon models and methods for projecting the vote at the 2010 British election. In this post we consider the performance of our projection model and the other models published in the run-up to the May 2010 UK Election, discuss the methodological issues involved, and consider some of the future directions for projection both in the…

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Would Gord still have been PM if the UNS had worked?

Would Gord still have been PM if the UNS had worked?

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BBC 2010 seat predictor How the blues beat the uniform swing In the high-octane political atmosphere following the May 6th election we never looked back to to check out what had been a contentious issue on PB for months beforehand – how the uniform national swing would operate. Above is what happens when you feed the GB votes shares on CON 36.9%: LAB 29.7%: LD 23.6% into the BBC’s swing calculator. Assuming the outstanding seat goes with last time then…

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Could the LDs get most seats with 36pc?

Could the LDs get most seats with 36pc?

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538.com Nate Silver’s view of the Uniform National Swing Nate Silver, the elections expert behind the renowned US polling site, Fivethreeeight.com, has been taking a close interest in the mathematics of the UK’s uniform nation swing mechanism for converting poll shares into seats won. He argues: “…. these forecasts are based on a questionable assumption and may understate, perhaps substantially, the magnitude of gains that might be realized by the Tories and by the LibDems. In particular, they are based…

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Today’s Marf cartoon and a warning about the UNS

Today’s Marf cartoon and a warning about the UNS

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Let’s stop the clap-trap about the uniform national swing So much tosh will be talked about the UNS (Uniform National Swing) in the coming weeks that I thought that we ought to feature a reminder of how successful it’s been in the past four election in predicting eventual seat totals from the national vote share numbers. Thanks to Andy Cooke on the previous thread for providing this. In 1992, Labour ourtperformed the UNS (which was about 2%) by 1-2% in…

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Now a pollster from India enters the fray

Now a pollster from India enters the fray

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RNB – New Delhi Mar 10 2005 CONSERVATIVES 39% 33.2% LABOUR 31% 36.2% LIB DEMS 20% 22.7% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% — What do think of RNB’s numbers and unique analysis? Thanks to Gabble on a thread last night for spotting this – a new opinion poll from a leading research company from India which carried out a survey of Westminster voting intentions from a sample of 1,800 voters from March 4 to March 10th. The findings,…

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Tonight’s commons seat spreads

Tonight’s commons seat spreads

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Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 330-335 225-230 55-58 Extrabet 330-335 228-233 57-60 Betfair 333-336 227-231 54-55.5 So all are in Tory majority territory With 325 seats being the technical threshold for a majority government tonight’s spread have the Tory number on all three markets being above the critical number – if not by very much. There hasn’t been much movement and clearly everything is being driven by the polls. Mike Smithson