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Category: Commons seat predictions

Declining UKIP support in June sees the CON position improve In the Electoral Calculus monthly GE2015 prediction

Declining UKIP support in June sees the CON position improve In the Electoral Calculus monthly GE2015 prediction

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LAB majority prediction from Electoral Calculus down from 92 to 74 following 4% average decline in UKIP poll share pic.twitter.com/3UwLUREYmb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2013 Martin Baxter’s “poll of polls” has UKIP down 4 Each month the Cambridge turned city mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus since the mid 1990s, Martin Baxter, publishes his latest general election projection based on his polling average applied to his Commons seat prediction model. The latest is in the table above. He…

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Revised seat projection approach from Martin Baxter points to UKIP starting to win Commons seats on a 16% share not 23%

Revised seat projection approach from Martin Baxter points to UKIP starting to win Commons seats on a 16% share not 23%

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Electoral Calculus's Martin Baxter now projecting that UKIP could start winning seats on 16% http://t.co/Bpu0246QfP pic.twitter.com/svyj94JJOA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 26, 2013 Time to look at UKIP seat betting? As has been highlighted a fair bit recently UKIP have a real challenge converting the substantial poll shares now being reported into seats because of the way the first past the post system operates with the smaller parties. Now Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus has published a revised approach to…

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Why the bias to LAB in the electoral system could be even more pronounced at GE2015

Why the bias to LAB in the electoral system could be even more pronounced at GE2015

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Anti-CON tactical voting could be much greater The big polling news yesterday was that in the Ipsos-MORI monthly phone survey the LAB lead amongst those certain to vote was down to just 4%. Suddenly a glimmer of hope appeared to be opening up for the Tories. Yet when these numbers were put into the Electoral Calculus HoC seat predictor LAB had a majority of 30 with a vote share of just 34%. That is 3% below what the Tories achieved…

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Ukip surge to record high in first post-local election YouGov/Sun poll

Ukip surge to record high in first post-local election YouGov/Sun poll

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In the first full YouGov poll carried out after the locals UKIP move to highest level with the firm CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 16% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2013 But Farage’s party would still get zero MPs Feeding tonight’s YouGov into the Electoral Calculus HoCpredictor we get a LAB majority of 108. Ukip on zero seats twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2013 The Electoral Calculus Commons seat predictor has been revised to factor…

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It’s exactly 2 years to go before the May 7 2015 general election: Current chances of a CON majority are put at just 1%

It’s exactly 2 years to go before the May 7 2015 general election: Current chances of a CON majority are put at just 1%

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And Labour’s chances of a majority are put at 81% It’s May 7th which means that it is exactly two years before the before the date laid down in the legislation introduced in October 2010 as the day of the next general election. There are provisions for this to be earlier but as long as the polling suggests that both coalition partners would get a drubbing it’s hard to envisage the circumstances in which this might happen. This extraordinary partnership…

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Exactly two years to the day after the AV referendum this is how Rallings and Thrasher project GE2015

Exactly two years to the day after the AV referendum this is how Rallings and Thrasher project GE2015

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The chart is based on Rallings & Thrasher data for today’s Sunday Times which has the pair’s own national equivalent vote share projections based on their detailed analysis of the outcome on Thursday. This has CON 26%, LAB 29%, LD 13%, Ukip 22% The numbers are different from the one’s published on Friday by the BBC and SkyNews because they are based on a different calculation. Two things stand out: the harsh fact for Ukip that by having a vote…

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Will the new boundaries really make that much difference?

Will the new boundaries really make that much difference?

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Watch this 40 minute lecture from Michael Thrasher Professor Michael Thrasher, famed for being part of the Rallings & Thrasher duo, has produced an interesting video lecture on the bias that exists within the electoral system. It goes on for 40 minutes and is well worth watching by anybody interested in the UK electoral process. By way of introduction Michael Thrasher writes:- “An important feature of the UK voting system that causes a great deal of confusion is the operation…

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Would Labour get a majority on the Populus figures?

Would Labour get a majority on the Populus figures?

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What will the boundaries do for Labour’s target? For various reasons I’m just catching up with today’s Times Populus poll which shows very little change on what the firm reported in July. An interesting question is whether a Labour 4 point lead would now be enough for a majority? A few weeks after the 2010 general election Professior John Curtice produded figures suggesting that the Conservatives would need a margin of 11.2% in votes over Labour to secure a majority…

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