And Labour’s chances of a majority are put at 81%
It’s May 7th which means that it is exactly two years before the before the date laid down in the legislation introduced in October 2010 as the day of the next general election. There are provisions for this to be earlier but as long as the polling suggests that both coalition partners would get a drubbing it’s hard to envisage the circumstances in which this might happen.
This extraordinary partnership is going to continue until May 7th 2015.
The polling for the past fourteen months has been pretty consistent – Labour had held a comfortable lead, certainly big enough to secure a working majority.
Last night the former Cambridge and now city mathematician, Martin Baxter, produced his latest computation of the outcome together with the percentage probabilities of the various outcomes. The figures are in the chart above.
Martin’s computations involves taking his projected vote shares and applying them to his seat prediction model. He then runs another computation to produce the probability numbers.
If you think they are wrong then you can get better odds from Betfair snd the bookies on a LAB majority and worse ones on a CON one
For the latest polling and political betting news