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If you think that GE2015 is getting hard to understand check out Martin Baxter’s battle-ground map

If you think that GE2015 is getting hard to understand check out Martin Baxter’s battle-ground map

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Martin Baxter, the ex-Cambridge University mathematiciion who has been running Electoral Calculus for two decades, has produced the above map that sets out the various outcomes and links them, based on party shares, to what could happen. I reproduce it above. In a technical note Martin writes:- ” Map only shows movement for the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. It assumes the votes for other parties, including UKIP and the SNP, are fixed at current support levels. UKIP are…

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Why CON could still be losing seats to LAB even if it manages to get a 6% lead

Why CON could still be losing seats to LAB even if it manages to get a 6% lead

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The first target for the blues – to be doing better than last time At GE2010 the Conservatives had a GB national vote share of 37% which was 7.3% bigger than Labour’s total of 29.7%. So under a uniform national swing CON needs to be ahead by that margin simply to stop losing seats to LAB. That is the starting point for the party at GE15 – to do at least as well as they did last time. Thus it…

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European Elections 2009 : Summary of Results

European Elections 2009 : Summary of Results

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European Election Results 2009 Conservatives 4,193,706 votes (27.63%) winning 272 count areas and 25 MEP’s United Kingdom Independence Party 2,495,782 votes (16.44%) winning 9 count areas and 13 MEP’s Labour 2,375,361 votes (15.65%) winning 59 count areas and 13 MEP’s Liberal Democrats 2,078,723 votes (13.70%) winning 11 count areas and 11 MEP’s Green Party 1,302,705 votes (8.58%) winning 3 count areas and 2 MEP’s British National Party 941,491 votes (6.20%) winning 0 count areas and 2 MEP’s Scottish National Party…

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Falling LAB poll shares in January sees Electoral Calculus cut the party’s projected majority by 6 seats

Falling LAB poll shares in January sees Electoral Calculus cut the party’s projected majority by 6 seats

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Latest Electoral Calculus projection for GE2015 http://t.co/4VTCVNQT7t pic.twitter.com/EY46vABkQD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2014 This is the commentary by Martin Baxters who has been running Electoral Calculus for two decades: “Most pollsters measured a small decrease in Labour’s lead over the Conservatives in January. But they also showed an increase in both the smaller parties’ vote, at the expense of themajor parties. However the pollsters are relatively divided about UKIP. One group (Opinium, ComRes and Survation) see a high…

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The piece in the GE2015 jigsaw that even Lynton Crosby is unable to fix: LAB gets more seats than CON for the same vote share

The piece in the GE2015 jigsaw that even Lynton Crosby is unable to fix: LAB gets more seats than CON for the same vote share

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What happens when you put CON 35% and LAB 35% into the Electoral Calculus seat calculator http://t.co/qP4NIfGVIM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2014 The challenge for the Tories is even bigger than the projection Everybody who follows UK politics knows that Labour can secure more seats on a given national vote share than the Tories or other parties. The above shows what happens on Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus seat porjector when vote shares of CON 35/LAB 35/LD 12/UKIP 10…

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The monthly projection from Electoral Calculus sees the LAB majority down from 80 seats to 78

The monthly projection from Electoral Calculus sees the LAB majority down from 80 seats to 78

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Electoral Calculus projection, based on current polls, makes a LAB maj a 78% chance See chart pic.twitter.com/nGlwZunxYt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 31, 2013 It’s LAB 364(+106)/CON 235(-72)/LD 23(-34)/UKIP 0/NAT 9(=) The latet monthly projection from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus sees a slight falling off of the projected LAB majority, The caluclation is based on applying Martin’s polling computation to his seat model and assuming a uniform national swing. The only changes in his polling average are CON+1 and UKIP-1…

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Electoral Calculus now giving LAB a 79 percent chance of a majority with CON a 4 percent one

Electoral Calculus now giving LAB a 79 percent chance of a majority with CON a 4 percent one

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The monthly Electoral Calculus general election projection is out and as can be seen from the chart LAB is given a 79% chance of an overall majority. In seat terms Electoral Calculus is projecting a LAB majority of 80 which is seven up on a month ago. The seat breakdown is CON 231 (-76): LAB 365 (+107): LD 23 (-34): SNP/PC 12 (+3): UKIP 0 (=) The key part of the Electoral Calculus approach is the assumption of a universal…

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The second YouGov poll in a row has the LAB lead down to just 5pc

The second YouGov poll in a row has the LAB lead down to just 5pc

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Are figures like this the new normality? There’s a general rule about the Sun’s daily poll from YouGov – if the numbers are good for the Tories then they get Tweeted overnight. If not then we usually have to wait until the normal publication time of 6am. The latest figures came out before midnight and show the CON and LAB shares at exactly the same level as they were in Sunday’s poll from the firm for the Sun’s News International…

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