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Category: Commons seat predictions

The CON GE2015 target seat over-spending issue throws into question the mathematics of GE2017

The CON GE2015 target seat over-spending issue throws into question the mathematics of GE2017

Tonight on #c4news: CPS confirm 15 separate police forces have sent files on 30 Tory MPs and agents relating to #electionexpenses scandal. — Hayley Barlow (@Hayley_Barlow) April 26, 2017 Keeping within the limits could make a difference Becasuse so much of the effort to predict and analyse the next election is based on what happened in each seat at GE2016 we are in something of a quandary because of what we know now about the Conservative approach to constituency expense…

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How Scotland and the LD collapse almost completely reverse the bias in the electoral system

How Scotland and the LD collapse almost completely reverse the bias in the electoral system

The dramatic shift in Britain’s political landscape As we all know one of the constants in British politics over more than a quarter of a century has been that the electoral system has been “biased” towards Labour. Essentially for a given vote share the red team will have more MPs than the blue one. Well the big news from May 7th is that that is all over and now the Tories will get more seats for an equal vote share…

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The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON a 75% chance to win most seats

The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON a 75% chance to win most seats

Clegg (1/2) & Farage (8/11) remain favourites with Betfair Sportsbook to win their seats in spite of @LordAshcroft polls having them behind — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 This is a bet on seat distribution not national vote shares One of the big things to remember as we get close is that the final seat totals are not governed by national vote share in some apparently pure manner but on the specific outcomes in 650 separate constituency battles fought…

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Even with Scotland will LAB still be able to win more seats than CON for the same national vote share?

Even with Scotland will LAB still be able to win more seats than CON for the same national vote share?

Profs Chris Hanretty, John Curtice & Phil Cowley at the PSA GE15 briefing pic.twitter.com/qqf3iFqkKx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 The academic experts are divided over electoral bias One of the massive questions hanging over the May 7th outcome is the impact of what we are all familiar with – electoral bias that has meant that there’s a long history of LAB getting more seats for the same vote share than the Tories. A lot of this has been…

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The big GE15 gamble is trying to work out what all the polling means in terms of seats

The big GE15 gamble is trying to work out what all the polling means in terms of seats

And on that there is no clear cut picture There is a huge divide both between academic groups and others like Martin Baxter’s long-standing Electoral Calculus. Frankly I find it hard to work this one out and I guess that whatever happens it will be a big surprise on the night. My long term GE15 bet has been CON ahead on votes – LAB ahead on seats. Reminder the PB pre May 7th gathering tomorrow. The Shooting Star from 7pm

Why the Tories could need to be 10% ahead in England and Wales just to stand still

Why the Tories could need to be 10% ahead in England and Wales just to stand still

What happened at GE2010 when you exclude Scotland One of the reasons why the latest Electoral Calculus projection, see previous thread, appeared to be so good for LAB was the way Scotland and England/Wales were treated. This is the response I got from Martin Baxter on the computation:- “The overall prediction is based on both the national (GB) polls and the Scotland-specific polls. For Scottish seats, the prediction is just based on the Scottish Westminster VI polls, and for England…

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Even though Baxter has SNP taking 47 of the 59 Scottish seats his latest projection has LAB just 5 short of a majority

Even though Baxter has SNP taking 47 of the 59 Scottish seats his latest projection has LAB just 5 short of a majority

Latest from Electoral Calculus http://t.co/yOyYu1w1VO has LAB 5 short of majority pic.twitter.com/3r8BdjnsmU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 31, 2014 I can’t quite work out how Martin Baxter is handling his monthly predictions given the sharp rise of the SNP. From his latest data, out last night, he appears to have made his usual national computation and then over-ridden the Scottish seat data with his Scotland specific seat calculation. The result, as can be seen, is that in the model the…

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If you think that GE2015 is getting hard to understand check out Martin Baxter’s battle-ground map

If you think that GE2015 is getting hard to understand check out Martin Baxter’s battle-ground map

Martin Baxter, the ex-Cambridge University mathematiciion who has been running Electoral Calculus for two decades, has produced the above map that sets out the various outcomes and links them, based on party shares, to what could happen. I reproduce it above. In a technical note Martin writes:- ” Map only shows movement for the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. It assumes the votes for other parties, including UKIP and the SNP, are fixed at current support levels. UKIP are…

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