— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 31, 2014
I can’t quite work out how Martin Baxter is handling his monthly predictions given the sharp rise of the SNP. From his latest data, out last night, he appears to have made his usual national computation and then over-ridden the Scottish seat data with his Scotland specific seat calculation.
The result, as can be seen, is that in the model the SNP are set to take 47 of the 59 Scottish seats.
What is very striking is that even taking out the LAB seat losses to the SNP in Scotland the overall national numbers have Ed Miliband’s party just five off a majority.
The element that is driving this is clear from his polling average on which the model is based. Some good numbers for Labour in several December polls have produced a LAB vote lead of 3.18%.
A feature which will attract attention is that his model does not account for by-elections and puts UKIP on zero seats.
Anyway this is a good way to kick off New Year’s Day. What do people think is going to happen on May 7th – something that we’ll be speculating about right through into the early hours on May 8th.
My guess is that polling accuracy and whether the Tories are understated will play a big part in our discussions. We’ll be reminded of 1992 when the party’s best final poll had them 0.5% ahead and John Major’s party came out with a majority on a vote share lead of more than 7%.
Will GE2015 be another GE1992? I’ll let you know at about 5am on May 8th.