On an explosive day the latest CON leader betting and charts
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Huge YouGov boost for Theresa May on the night before nominations close
The first poll of members has big CON member backing for the Home Secretary First YouGov CON members poll has Theresa May with big lead over Johnson pic.twitter.com/K64gpyrVuk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2016 YouGov CON members poll match-up between main contenders pic.twitter.com/uiAXFSKei2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2016 At the 2001 and 2005 CON leadership elections YouGov member polls got the final outcome almost dead on — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2016 Let us lust remind…
Remain retain their lead with ComRes. Just.
Via @britainelects @ComResPolls #EURef Phone poll Remain: 46% (-6)Leave: 45% (+4)https://t.co/wKQDVraRB1 — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 14, 2016 If this poll is accurate, the UK is Never Gonna Give EU Up As with other recent referendum polls there’s been a big swing to Leave, it is a reflection of the poor position Remain find themselves in that they’ll be delighted with a 1% per cent lead. The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the…
The voters’ misconceptions could win this for Leave
Voters think EU citizens make up 15% of the total UK population when in reality it’s 5% @IpsosMORI finds pic.twitter.com/5gmkamqAPC — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2016 This could help Leave win This one of my favourite bits of regular polling. Ipsos Mori have compared the perceptions of the voters to the reality. As we can see the voters’ think there’s more EU citizens here than there actually are. This might explain why Leave are focussing so heavily on immigration in the…
Election verdict. Corbyn is staying but he must raise his game
Don Brind has some unlikely advice on where he should look for lessons It’s a fine sunny day in April 2005 and Tony Blair is about to make a major speech on immigration — responding to a Tory General Election campaign inspired by Lynton Crosby on his first foray into British politics. The venue is Dover and the Labour events team have spent weeks on planning and staging the event. Blair arrives by helicopter and the media pen is positioned so…
Are we witnessing the death of Scottish Labour?
It’s not the falling that kills you; it’s the landing Bafflement and incomprehension are unlikely to be in short supply for Scottish Labour. Each time they hit a new low, the belief is that things can now only get better. With rare exceptions, the belief has continually been wrong. So again this week. For the fourth election in a row, Scottish Labour lost seats. The progression of their seat totals since the first election to Holyrood, in 1999, now reads:…
It’s the economy, stupid
If Leave wants to win they need to show that Brexit is the better option for the economy and the financial wellbeing of voters. We’ve been here before. We see the headline voting intention figures showing it neck and neck, yet the supplementaries on the economy show one side extending their clear lead further. Looking at the above supplementary questions from this week’s YouGov poll that showed Leave ahead by 1%, this referendum campaign, with the supplementaries showing more and more…
Why Cameron and his team are targeting parents with children
Why we need to vote to remain in Europe for our children: https://t.co/lRlS6FJ6mi — David Cameron (@David_Cameron) April 25, 2016 The polling that shows that looking after kids more likely to be for IN The more we learn about the Tory campaign at GE2015 the more we realise that micro-targeting specific demographic group on Facebook played a big part and looks set to be ever more significant in future election. You tailor a special message to those who fit the…