Remain retain their lead with ComRes. Just.

Remain retain their lead with ComRes. Just.

If this poll is accurate, the UK is Never Gonna Give EU Up

As with other recent referendum polls there’s been a big swing to Leave, it is a reflection of the poor position Remain find themselves in that they’ll be delighted with a 1% per cent lead.

The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only phone pollster to have the Tories consistently ahead at the last general election, and their turnout model, which they’ve worked so hard to develop, as turnout is the thing I’m struggling most to call in this referendum, as I have huge doubts about other polls with self-certifying turnout.

I do feel sorry for both campaigns, when the supplementaries give contradictory findings

We also asked voters how much economic pain they were prepared to suffer to break free of Brussels control.

In a contradictory finding, three in five Brits – 61% – say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to see EU immigration controls tightened, which Brexit would allow.

But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

What it is interesting of the recent polls, the Leave leads appear to be quite large, but Remain’s leads appear to be tepid, Opinium and ComRes have Remain’s lead at 2 and 1 per cent respectively. All eyes now the phone polls from Ipsos Mori & Survation which come out on Thursday.


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