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Category: By elections

One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elections in the Politicos GE2015 Guide will look totally out of date

One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elections in the Politicos GE2015 Guide will look totally out of date

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View from the Guardian's executive suite at Clacton count pic.twitter.com/buFwL9D25c — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) October 9, 2014 Just got back from an enjoyable holiday near Malaga to find my copy of the Politicos Guide to GE2015 waiting for me. Like its predecessor on the 2010 election I’ve contributed a chapter on by-elections in this parliament the text of which was finalised before Douglas Carswell made his dramatic switch and resigned forcing today’s by-election. What I wrote at the end of July…

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What the Rochester poll would look like without the 2010 non voters

What the Rochester poll would look like without the 2010 non voters

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The race becomes a tie – but Labour could snatch it Thanks to Mike for alerting me to the fact that 23.4% of the UKIP support in the survation poll were people who did not vote in the 2010 General Election. History has shown voters who did not vote in the last general election are the less likely to turnout in the next general election. One of the reasons ICM has been consistently the most accurate pollster is one of their…

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Survation Rochester Poll has UKIP 9% ahead

Survation Rochester Poll has UKIP 9% ahead

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Whilst UKIP will be delighted by this, there’s a few things to note Mark Reckless’ share of the vote is down nearly 10% from the general election A lead of 9% compares poorly to the 44% lead UKIP/Douglas Carswell had in the Clacton Survation poll This leads me to conclude that my assumption that Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell in terms of popularity in his seat the way Douglas Carswell is regarded in Clacton. I expect the Labour supporters…

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Survation poll on Heywood and Middleton has a comfortable Labour hold

Survation poll on Heywood and Middleton has a comfortable Labour hold

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The changes are from the 2010 General Election I think Labour will be relieved and delighted with this comfortable hold and increase on their 2010 share of the vote, UKIP will be delighted with the increase, that they can do well in traditional Labour heartlands and that they aren’t just disgruntled Tories. All the odds on Heywood and Middleton are available here. But the major polling news this evening is this Tonight's Sun/YouGov has the Tories ahead for the first…

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LAB’s strategy in Heywood and Middleton is blindingly obvious: Talk up UKIP threat to get tactical anti-UKIP votes

LAB’s strategy in Heywood and Middleton is blindingly obvious: Talk up UKIP threat to get tactical anti-UKIP votes

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Result in Heywood and Middleton at GE 2010 pic.twitter.com/l8HQ2vq4SC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 24, 2014 And you know what? They’ll probably succeed Suddenly the Heywood and Middleton by-election two weeks from today is not looking like the foregone conclusion that it appeared when the vacancy was created following the death of the popular MP Jim Dobbin. In the past couple of days there have been are a wave of stories about the possibility of UKIP taking the hitherto rock…

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Local By-Election Preview: September 18th 2014 (Referendum Day)

Local By-Election Preview: September 18th 2014 (Referendum Day)

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Abergele, Pensarn on Conwy (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 19, Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 12, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 5 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 14) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 407 (55%), Independent 186 (25%), Conservative 145 (20%) Candidates duly nominated: Barry Griffiths (Ind), Val Parker (Ind), John Pitt (Con), Michael Smith (Ind), Rick Stubbs (Lab), Ken Sudlow (Ind), Sarah Wardlaw (UKIP) Conwy is one of these councils were the…

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A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?

A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?

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Corporeal looks at the BBC’s Clacton decision One of the unresolved questions surrounding the next general election is how the media will treat UKIP, will they be pushed into the background as coverage hones in on the Lib Dems, (and especially) Labour, and the Conservatives or will they get brought into the mainstream debate and get a share of the precious oxygen of publicity. Most interesting, and probably most symbolic of all is whether they will get a look in…

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The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

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The devastating detail from the @Survation -MoS Clacton poll. Where the UKIP is coming from. http://t.co/vnARzqe6NN pic.twitter.com/y8OASfgEud — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 31, 2014 The constituency, though, is a one-off In all the time I have been following and analysing polls there has never been anything as sensational as the Survation Clacton poll for the Mail on Sunday published overnight. The figures are extraordinary and point to an overwhelming victory for Douglas Carswell in his new colours. The thing we…

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