The changes are from the 2010 General Election
I think Labour will be relieved and delighted with this comfortable hold and increase on their 2010 share of the vote, UKIP will be delighted with the increase, that they can do well in traditional Labour heartlands and that they aren’t just disgruntled Tories.
All the odds on Heywood and Middleton are available here.
But the major polling news this evening is this
Tonight's Sun/YouGov has the Tories ahead for the first time since March 2012 Con 35, Lab 34, LD 6, UKIP 14
— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 2, 2014
As ever, I’d remind everyone polls during conference time can be erratic, we should wait until middle/end of October before reading too much into the polls.