View from the Guardian's executive suite at Clacton count pic.twitter.com/buFwL9D25c
— AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) October 9, 2014
Just got back from an enjoyable holiday near Malaga to find my copy of the Politicos Guide to GE2015 waiting for me. Like its predecessor on the 2010 election I’ve contributed a chapter on by-elections in this parliament the text of which was finalised before Douglas Carswell made his dramatic switch and resigned forcing today’s by-election.
What I wrote at the end of July now looks terribly out of data because tonight we are going to see a sensation. UKIP is going to win its first Westminster seat. The big question is how big will the winning margin be.
Survation had it at 44% while a few days Later Lord Ashcroft’s poll put it in the low 30s. Whatever anything above 25% is a great outcome for the purples.
First up, though, will be the Heywood & Middleton result which if it went anyway other than Labour would be a sensation.
Enjoy the night. I’m off to bed but will be up in the early hours.