Whilst UKIP will be delighted by this, there’s a few things to note
- Mark Reckless’ share of the vote is down nearly 10% from the general election
- A lead of 9% compares poorly to the 44% lead UKIP/Douglas Carswell had in the Clacton Survation poll
This leads me to conclude that my assumption that Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell in terms of popularity in his seat the way Douglas Carswell is regarded in Clacton.
I expect the Labour supporters to get bombarded by the Blues and Purples for tactical votes. what will we see? Tactical anti-Tory voting or Tactical anti-UKIP voting? Both the Tories and UKIP will think they can win. Brace yourself for one of the most fiercely contested by-elections in history.
I’ve not got the fieldwork dates to hand, but I’m expecting this was conducted in the aftermath of the Tory conference, UKIP had a 9% lead, the bookies making Reckless favourite seem about right, however Mike Smithson said he understood prior to Reckless’ defection, there was polling showing Reckless having a double digit lead, so there may wall be worry for the purples that the trend is not their friend.
Also, I would like to see the polling once the Tory candidate has been selected.
Meanwhile YouGov sees the Tories extending their lead.
As ever, conference polling can be erratic and volatile, the most interesting finding from this is the Tory lead on Education. Looks like a good move by Dave to move Michael Gove out of the Department of Education
— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 4, 2014