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Category: Boundary Reviews

Would Labour get a majority on the Populus figures?

Would Labour get a majority on the Populus figures?

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What will the boundaries do for Labour’s target? For various reasons I’m just catching up with today’s Times Populus poll which shows very little change on what the firm reported in July. An interesting question is whether a Labour 4 point lead would now be enough for a majority? A few weeks after the 2010 general election Professior John Curtice produded figures suggesting that the Conservatives would need a margin of 11.2% in votes over Labour to secure a majority…

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The boundary changes: The count-down begins

The boundary changes: The count-down begins

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Is 2 years of uncertainty going to cause mayhem? Reproduced above is the rather chilling home-page of the public consultation part of English boundaries review. The plans have been formally published and now the count-down begins. As can be seen there are just 84 days left for interested parties to have their say – tomorrow it will be 83. My broad reading is that faced with the very tight mathematical constraints laid down in the legislation the commissioners have come…

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Is Nadine set to be one of the boundary losers?

Is Nadine set to be one of the boundary losers?

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What’s your analysis from the areas you know? We’ve now got the leaked copy of the boundary proposals for England and lots of different stories are emerging. At the moment it’s hard to give a top down analysis – we can only really comment on the areas that we ourselves know. Where I live in the big loser would appear to be the controversial mid-Bedfordshire Tory MP, Nadine Dorries, who sees her seat split into four. That’s going to make…

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The boundaries: Is it best for the blues not to do too well?

The boundaries: Is it best for the blues not to do too well?

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Are the local battles about to commence? At midday at Westminster MPs for seats in England will for the first time see the proposals for the the revised boundaries that have been drawn up for the reduced sized house of commons. The total of MPs is being cut-back from 650 to 600 so inevitably there will be losers. Also certain is that the levels of marginality will change. So MPs with relatively comfortable majorities might find that the plan for…

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Could the “notional 2010 result” have the Tories just 9 seats short?

Could the “notional 2010 result” have the Tories just 9 seats short?

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Will the blues make their “first 2015 gains” next week Although it is not expressed in these terms the first part of the process leading up to the 2015 general election starts next week with the publication of the proposed new electoral map for England. This will set out in detail the precise boundaries that it is proposed that the 2015 election will be fought on. The plans for Scotland are due next month while the Wales will have to…

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Was going for a smaller House of Commons a mistake?

Was going for a smaller House of Commons a mistake?

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Does it increase the risk of the changes being voted down? The big UK story in the Financial Times this morning is something what we’ve touched on several times here on PB already – the possibility that the planned new boundaries for the next election get voted down when they come before the commons in two years time. Jim Packard reports that “that significant numbers of Liberal Democrat and Tory MPs” look set to join Labour in opposing the detailed…

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Are the Welsh having problems cutting a quarter of their seats?

Are the Welsh having problems cutting a quarter of their seats?

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Welsh boundary review proposals delayed until next year The part of the UK that is most affected by the seat equalisation and reduction plan is Wales where the boundary commissioners are charged with reducing the number of constituencies from the current 40 to 30. This is a cutback of a quarter. The national reduction is from 650 seats to 600. According to the initial time-table plans for the new Welsh electoral map was due out in the first week in…

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Did the Tories make a huge mistake with their boundaries’ plan?

Did the Tories make a huge mistake with their boundaries’ plan?

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Could the whole lot be blown because of the seat reductions? In just over six weeks time the first of the planned electoral maps for 2015 will be published – a development that’s likely to have a big impact on the next election result and be one of the major political rows from the conference season onwards. This will be the first stage of the new process enacted in February which brings in equalised constituencies and fast-track reviews every five…

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