After the crucial Osborne endorsement Badenoch continues to soar
TSE
Gone but not forgotten
Today is the second anniversary of the end of the premiership of Liz Truss. I am very fond of Liz Truss and her tenure as Prime Minister because her resignation allowed me to win £500. I suspect Labour are similarly fond of Liz Truss because her disastrous tenure which spooked the markets, sacked her Chancellor, the utter poop show on the fracking vote which led to the Chief Whip & Deputy Chief Whip resigning, and of course the lettuce. History…
Americans have issues
Earlier on this year I thought abortion would be the key factor that would help the Dems retain the White House next month as it would drive their base to turnout and vote but the closer we get to the election it’s the economy, stupid, then immigration which favours Donald Trump. TSE
Don’t panic
My concern is that even if Harris is tied or even slightly ahead then Trump wins the electoral college. TSE
Ayrshire hotelier remains the favourite to win the American presidency
I still think Harris remains value. TSE
Senatorial Choices
All eyes are on the Presidency, but the reality is that it is far from the only election this cycle: there are (one higher than normal) 34 Senate races. And, boy, is this one interesting. As a reminder, the Democrats (along with associated Independents) currently control the Senate by 51 to 49. And there a *lot* of close elections this year. There are three Senate races currently held by the Democrats in States where Trump won in 2020: West Virginia,…
State of the Union, Week 8
The charts are getting redder. No one is giving the Electoral College to Harris now, the best forecasts are unclear results from Nate Silver and electoral-vote, with differing states tied in their models. And in the national polling, the movement is in Trump’s direction, even if Harris is leading slightly. The Senate picture is different (a little, not a lot) – after years of being told by pundits that split ticket voting was a thing of the past, it looks…
11 days to go and punters aren’t expecting Badenoch to Kemikaze her chances
On Saturday I did partake in a YouGov poll of Tory members, the last poll had Badenoch defeating Jenrick by the cursed ratio of 52% to 48%. If a new poll shows something similar or Jenrick ahead then I’d expect this market to be jolted. But on the last available evidence Jenrick represents some value. TSE