With Mike Amesbury being sentenced today (and him appealing) the recall process will be slightly paused, I suspect we will see a by election at some point this year. Ladbrokes have a market on a potential by election. I still think Labour has a chance of holding the seat but I understand why people will want to back Reform. TSE
TSE
I am intrigued to see if the interventions by the new American administration starts impacting election outcomes in other countries, such as Germany and Canada, we won’t have long to wait to see with the former. TSE
Whilst your own bio isn’t a CV it does blunt the Tory attacks on the likes of Reeves and Reynolds, it also reinforces the impression that both front benches are a seraglio of eunuchs. TSE
For those curious about the PB Prediction Competition, the full list of entries can be found in this spreadsheet. PB Prediction Competition 2025 – Entries Most of the questions won’t be settled until the end of the year, although we do have one which should be answered very soon: Question 7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election. For Question 7. we have a low entry of 88 AfD seats, a high of 200,…
The Lib Dems are setting themselves as the one GB wide party who are unambiguously publicly anti Trump which may lead to a polling boost for them if Trump’s appeasement of Putin/sellout of Ukraine continues, Tim Farron shows how they are utilising that approach. The intervention from Liz Truss also confirms that Kemi Badenoch was absolutely right when she wanted Liz Truss to shut up TSE
TSE
Previously in this market I thought given the structure of Reform it was unlikely that Farage could be ousted but now the party is like the traditional parties it is rather more possible following today’s announcement. With a significant element of Reform voters being rather more pro Trump/pro Putin’s aggression in Ukraine and if Farage does denounce Trump then it is possible for Farage to be ousted, I still Badenoch is the one i would back if i was forced…