At least Rishi Sunak can say that his last full day as Tory leader saw the Tories ahead. Before anyone gets too excited by this poll yesterday also saw a poll by Techne with a Labour lead of 7% and even Ed Miliband led in the polls four months after the 2010 election. TSE
I suspect the real winner tomorrow will be Sir Keir Starmer. If I was Kemi Badenoch I would be reevaluate my life choices, it is some achievement to have worse (net) unfavourable than Robert Jenrick. TSE
If Kamala Harris does win the election next week my expectation is that it will be women voters and a wider more enthused coalition that will power her to victory. With abortion being an important factor in this election it might explain why so many women think the self confessed pussy grabber doesn’t respect women. TSE
Voting closed at 5pm in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak and Robert Jenrick’s chances are near rock bottom (but he has been lower before) but I do think he remains a smidgen of value given the last YouGov poll had him losing to Badenoch by a mere 4%. The result will be announced at 11am on Saturday morning. TSE
With the White House race essentially being a coin toss the Betfair market appears to disagree but given the the news coming out regarding Polymarket raises eyebrows. I suspect there are sufficient safeguards in place to stop market manipulation on Betfair and with over £116 million matched on this Betfair market it seems a poor use of resources to waste money on the betting markets rather than spend the money in key battleground states like Georgia and Pennsylvania. Perhaps one…
The early narrative about this budget could be sub-optimal for Labour. TSE
Since winning a stonking majority in July it’s not gone swimmingly for Sir Keir with several unforced errors and his ratings cratering but today represents a chance for a reset. Given the leaks so far I expect some eye catching things to be announced during the first Labour budget in fourteen years. A golden rule of budgets is those that are cheered on the day often fall apart within a few days. Regretfully there appear to be no betting markets…
The House The US House of Representatives has 435 members. Each state is allocated 1 House member initially and then the remaining House members are allocated proportionally. The whole House is elected every 2 years. After every decennial census, the House undergoes a reapportionment process, where the allocation of seats for each state is adjusted in line with population changes. Each state (with more than one seat) then redraws the boundaries of its districts. This process is left up to…