The headline grabbing feature of this poll is that on the economy Labour are polling worse than Liz Truss however there’s someting much more interesting for me. Reform are polling very well in the voting intention figures yet more people trust the Tories on the economy, this might indicate that the Reform vote share is soft and can be reduced and the Tories could do much better a general election if they can present themselves as the most (relatively) economic…
I am not playing this market as it is the epitome of an insiders’ market despite Suella Braverman’s longstanding flirtation with Reform. I am not sure what Suella Braverman’s purpose is in the Tory Party other than to ensure Robert Jenrick isn’t the most disliked Tory MP. TSE
One of the seemingly immutable laws of politics is when parties and politicians break their promises on taxes they suffer in the polls and the ballot box. Remember George Bush Snr and ‘read my lips, no new taxes’ or the Tories winning the 1992 general election by focussing taxes going up a lot under Labour then the Tories won the election and put up taxes a lot. This week Rachel Reeves has been making statements about she will break the…
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PBers should be familiar with the concept of a trading bet and I think Marjorie Taylor Greene winning the presidency in 2028 falls into that category. Normally I would have expected her to court the hardcore MAGA types that believe George Soros funds Jewish space lasers that help illegal immigrants invade America and caused Covid-19 but as we can see in the above Tweets she appears to becoming de-radicalised. She might end building a coalition of voters, or she might…
I will ask again, how and why a government that was elected with a majority of 174 last year collapses three years later. Why would they go for an early election? I would not be backing a 2027 election even as a trading bet. TSE
This poll from YouGov confirms a hunch that I’ve had for a while, Reform are simultaneously the country’s most popular party and the country’s most unpopular party which bodes well for tactical anti Reform voting (see the Caerphilly by-election as an example.) The other questions find further credence for this ‘YouGov also found that there was still a clear majority of voters strongly opposed to the concept of a Reform government. About half (49 per cent) of all voters thought…
I know it is gauche to keep on talking about your successful betting strategies but I love a good trading bet, if you followed my tip from September 2024 on Ed Miliband succeeding Sir Keir Starmer then you should be considering trading out for a profit. You can back Ed Miliband as next PM on Betfair at 32.5 which I think represents value. TSE