politicalbetting.com

In a close election marginal gains will be critical, J.D. Vance is turning out be the biggest duffer since John McCain picked Sarah Palin. Unless she Harris picks as her running mate Harvey Weinstein or the contents of a cat’s litter tray her choice for Veep should be better than Vance, he brings no balance to the Trump ticket and will scare off centrist voters. There is a Betfair market on who Harris will choose, but I cannot see any…

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We’ve started to see some polls (conducted exclusively after Biden’s announcement) which shows Harris leading. My expectation is that the polling will get better for Harris until after the convention (where parties usually get a bounce) and she might even be favourite in this market then. TSE

A fun betting market would be to see if Trump replaces J.D. Vance before the election. Normally the choice of running mates doesn’t normally impact election results but I wonder if the choice of J.D. Vance might be an exception. His latest views are like to put off independent votes and his past comments on Trump are likely to feature heavily in Harris campaign’s ads. The comments by Vance are going to annoY Trump who demands fealty from those who…

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TSE

This is what happens when your prioritise older voters at the expense of younger voters and stop being the party of aspiration. TSE

It is often said televised political debates do not effect elections but last month’s debate absolutely upended that axiom and I wonder if another debate could be another gamechanger. The prosecutor versus the serial criminal would be pure box office and it could be political theatre like we’ve never seen before. If the self confessed pussy grabber and Insurrection-in-Chief ducks out of any debates with Harris then that should lead to a boost for Harris in the polls. As an…

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Michelle Obama backers please explain yourself! Because for those of us laying her it feels like we’re taking candy from a baby. TSE

After Joe Biden’s announcement retirement I think the election now becomes a de facto referendum on Donald Trump and what his second term would entail. That has the potential to be a game changer, particularly if Harris wins the nomination as expected as the election will the prosecutor versus the criminal. TSE