I would have thought the first poll showing Labour in the 30s would have an impact on the betting markets. One of the first things I learned visiting PB in the mid 2000s was a maxim by Sir Robert Worcester which was to ignore the lead but to focus on the share of the vote. I suspect why the betting market hasn’t moved is that appears to be an outlier, the Focaldata poll still has Labour in the 40s but…
Ladbrokes have a market up on what publicity shy antics Sir Ed Davey will get up to before election day. Using the golden rule that you should never get involved in a market where the bookie doesn’t offer both sides of the bet applies here. That said I cannot rule out the possibility of Sir Ed being fired out of a cannon. From the outside it appears the Lib Dems are desperate to become the third party again, with all…
This might be bad news for people betting against a 1931 style result in reverse. TSE
Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are in part a section of the Red Wall. At present we have 22 MPs, 5 in Nottingham and Derby, and the other 17 in County seats. Back in March in the PB comments I suggested that of the 8 County seats in Nottinghamshire, currently all Conservative, 5 to 7 would flip to Labour – possibly excepting Newark (Robert Jenrick) which has a majority of 22k and is no 256 on Labour’s target list according to Election…
Although this polling from More in Common might be sub-optimal for Reform and Farage. Being seen as Dangerous, Idiot, and Racist isn’t how you win seats. TSE
Ric Holden is the Tory Party Chairman who has just completed the chicken run. If he is the sort of Tory MP that will make up the parliamentary party after the election it is why the Tories are likely to have a long spell in opposition, the quality of candidates and MPs is at an all time low. TSE
The (literally for some) seminal moment of the 1997 general election was Defence Secretary Michael Portillo and likely next Tory leader losing his seat and according to some polls we might be headed for something even more spectacular this year. The Tories losing Richmond & Northallerton feels like a the ravens fleeing of the Tower of London of moment, I just cannot see it happening despite Sunak’s best efforts. Below are the odds from Ladbrokes for Sunak’s seat and I…
John William Waterhouse – The Crystal Ball – Wikipedia Public Domain To lighten the mood a little during the long UK General Election campaign I thought I might provide a brief update on the PB Prediction Competition. Firstly, a reminder of the 10 questions that were set, including the answers for those that are settled: 1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. Answer: 11%, More in Common (7–11 Feb). 2. Date of the next…