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After the second round result there was a bit of movement towards Badenoch but that seems to have dissipated with Robert Jenrick going past the 50% probability mark in the past week. I think punters are coming to the view that Badenoch is unlikely to make the final two under the exhaustive ballot system (aka quasi-AV) voting system. With Kamala Harris the favourite on Betfair to win in November coupled with Starmer’s stonking majority punters think 2024 is shaping up…

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In seven weeks time is election day, my prediction is that as things stand that Kamala Harris will win the popular but Donald Trump will win the electoral college vote although overnight 538 says Harris wins 61 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Post your predictions in the comments. TSE

This really couldn’t be tighter: the models seem to be converging on a very narrow win for Harris, with the only difference at the moment being ev-com having Harris winning North Carolina but losing Michigan, whereas the others have those two flipped. Even with that narrow EC advantage, most of the states, with most of the models, are in one camp or the other by small margins, often just a fraction of 1 per cent. It wouldn’t take much for…

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One of the biggest overreactions in this market was in the immeediate aftermath after the first assassination attempt. The reason I felt this was a massive overreaction was that Gerald Ford was on the receiving end of two attempted assassination attempts and still lost the 1976 election. It appears punters have understood historical precedent. TSE

As a general rule in politics if you’re going to rely on non voters to win you an election then your campaign is in trouble because there’s a good reason these voters are perpetually non voters however Donald Trump has a good track record when it comes to non voters. In 2020 he persuaded over eleven million more people to vote for him than did in 2016 which was a genuine shock to me. Joe Biden persuaded nearly sixteen million…

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The Lib Dem conference starts today and I think the Tory conference will attract a lot of attention with the beauty parade featuring the final four leadership contenders. TSE

Like the dodo, Zeppelins, and mullets, cash will end up going the same way. TSE

Other than Rasmussen all the post debate polls show movement to Harris/Harris ahead so no more debates could help Trump. TSE