So here we are, finally at election day. And as the comedian Emo Phillips said, ‘It’s hard to believe that this long, crazy election will finally be over in a few months.’ Because it’s that close. None of the models give either candidate much of a margin, from 538 having it 270-268 for Harris, to the 287-251 margins given by Nate Silver and RCP (note also that Nate’s Monte Carlo simulations disagree with his state y state model, giving Harris…
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Earlier I backed Kamala Harris thinking she was value, my ability to move betting markets remains unparalleled as her odds lengthened ever further, so she’s even more value now. I find Trump and Farage’s comments interesting but I am probably reading too much in to them. TSE
With the polls predicting a very close race we shouldn’t be surprised if the winner of the electoral college will be the candidate who finished second in the popular vote. Since the Berlin Wall fell there have been eight American presidential elections and in seven of those elections the Republican party candidate have lost the popular vote so I can understand why people would want to back Trump in this Betfair market but I think the value is with Harris…
We’re going to find out in around 72 hours time if the Selzer approach is right, if it is then I think we will see this outside of Iowa and that portends a bigly Harris victory and makes playing the spreads attractive but if I am wrong then you could end up in the poorhouse which makes spread betting so exciting. TSE PS – H/T to PBer EdmundInTokyo for posting that Gregg Levine observation.
This feels like an outlier from the Iowa gold standard pollster In 2020 Donald Trump won Iowa by over 8% so a poll showing him losing the state by 3% by the respected Ann Selzer is quite sensational, as we can see in the above tweets the track record of this pollster is near flawless. If this poll is accurate it would pressage a Harris landslide which the wider polls haven’t picked up on. Emerson which is generally rated as…
Before the secret rule change I said whoever won today would be unlikely to be the Tory leader at the next election and I am still sticking to that viewpoint, 79 Tory MPs which is nearly two thirds of the parliamentary party didn’t vote for Badenoch. The Tory party faces an existential crisis as it could be pincered senseless by Reform and the Lib Dems over the next few years and I am not sure Badenoch has the skillset to…