In 1997 Labour won a landslide with 146 gains and no losses. It stands to reason really: Their vote share rose by 8.8% nationally and with the bulk of voters deciding on national issues or loyalties that rising tide lifted all boats. Labour are currently polling roughly 10% above the 32.1% vote share Corbyn achieved in 2019, and yet the betting markets have them as outsides in two seats they hold. A further six seats have meaningful odds (1/10 or…
So for a bit of fun, I decided to look at the Survation MRP polling conducted between 31st May and 13th June. This showed that all but 72 Tory MPs would lose their seats and I wondered what the make up of the Tory party would look like after the election if this prediction came true. Below are listed the 72 MPs who Survation suggest will survive the Great Cull of 2024. They are listed from largest lead to smallest…
Based on the Survation MRP published last night Labour are in third place in Clacton just 3.1% behind Reform’s Nigel Farage, it can only take a little bit of movement and/or the MRP to be slightly out for Labour to come through the middle and win. Both Ladbrokes and Bet 365 have Labour 8/1 to win whilst Betfair have Labour at 13 and I reckon that’s worth a flutter although I expect this will be a bet that joins my…
The SNP figure seems a bit of an outlier, it will be interesting to see if other pollsters that showing similar scores. It will be quite something if the Tories only have 35 more MPs than the SNP who are only standing in just one part of the UK. The Reform seat figure seems high because of the way of FPTP but you might want to start buying Reform and SNP on the spreads and sell the Tories if this…
The key finding for me is ’74-76% dislike Rishi Sunak and the party’ which means it is very stupid to start sticking the Reform vote share to the Tory vote share. Under first past the post when you’re opponents are divided you do well, I suggest this is good news for Labour and the Lib Dems and is impacting my betting strategies. TSE
A General Election is supposed to answer the question of who runs the country, but we already have the answer for July 4th 2024: it will be Labour running the country. From their side, the only outstanding answer required is whether they have a big majority, or a very big majority. Or even a VERY very big majority.From the other side, there are other and more interesting questions: what kind of a result will the Conservatives get? And what will…
In the run up to every recent general election there’s speculation that the exit poll will be wrong this time because of some new change. In 2010 it was the Lib Dem surge, in 2015 it was the rise of UKIP and the SNP, in 2017 and 2019 there were Brexit related issues but the exit poll team dealt with those and gave us very accurate exit polls. In the run up to this election there’s new issues being flagged,…
Matt Singh is right, not everybody thinks/follows politics in the way we do which might impact our betting strategies. As more people realise Starmer is a lawyer then his ratings should rise further. Millions of voters are saying ‘The only one who could ever reach me was the son of a toolmaker man.’ TSE