The latest YouGov UC elections model has Biden 356 ECVs Trump 182
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Trump acolyte Lindsey Graham to fall victim to the blue wave?
A value bet at the current 33% Apart from choosing the president next week there are a whole host of other contests taking place in the US and I’ve been looking at some to see if I can find interesting betting opportunities. One of the fiercest and most expensive battles is going on for the Senate seat in South Carolina where the controversial long-standing Republican, Lindsey Graham is trying to fend off a furious high budget campaign by the Democrats…
READING THE TEA LEAVES: A LOOK AT NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTING
The North Carolina Board of Elections is great: they give you turnout by day, by type (mostly in person early voting), by gender and by party affiliation. This means you can compare the numbers to four years ago (when North Carolina also had an awful lot of early voting), and can draw some interesting conclusions. So, here they come: Turnout is up – and it’s mostly in person early voting. At this stage in 2016, 1.6 million people had voted early…
This is starting to look like landslide territory.
What does Trump have in his armoury if the voters trust Joe Biden more on the economy? A fortnight ago I said that with the pollster Quinnipiac Donald Trump was the preferred choice of the American voters to manage the economy, but it is becoming clear that with a few pollsters Trump doesn’t hold that advantage. As with the UK general election of 2015 and the EU referendum the following year it was clear (in hindsight) that the supplementaries were…
My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race
I’ll let you all into a little secret, it is entirely possible the stonking huge polling leads that Biden has turn out to be accurate but he still doesn’t win the Presidency. One scenario is where Biden gets votes where he doesn’t need them and Trump gets the votes where he needs them, but the scenario I’m going to look at today is that America isn’t a functioning democracy. With a pandemic on it has been obvious for some time…
The polling gets tighter and tighter in Texas yet on Betfair Biden is still a 27% chance
Above is the latest chart from FiveThirtyEight of the polling trend in Texas – the state with 38 ECVs which of it itself would be enough to give Biden the Presidency. This is where there has seen an explosion in in-person early voting which the Republican governor was prevented by the courts from trying to impede. So far a colossal 6,391,021 have voted there with 5,603,359 of them voting in person. This represents more 70% of the total percent of…
The final debate: Trump better than last time but this was no game-changer
Betting at 0415 BST Biden 66% Trump 34% I did not stay up to watch the debate but from the reactions I’ve managed to collate it is clear that Trump did better than the first debate but he scored no knockout blows against Biden. In the betting Trump edged up 2% and Biden dropped 2% on Betfair. This was from the verdict by Taegan Goddard at PoliticalWire: After the chaotic and mostly incoherent first presidential debate, Donald Trump’s advisers pleaded…
What makes the Texas battle intriguing is the historic polling understatement of the Democrats in the state
Biden winning here the best value bet of WH2020? At WH2016 the Texas final polls had Trump beating Clinton by 11.7% compared with a 9% margin on the day. Two years later, at the 2018 midterms, the RCP polling average had Republican Senator Ted Cruz beating Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 6.8%. In the end Cruz just managed it with a margin of 2.6%. Currently the FiveThirtyEight average has Trump ahead of Biden in the state by just 1.2%. It is…