Longstanding readers of PB know I have always been an advocate of electoral reform which made me a rarity in the Tory Party however it appears more and more Tories are joining me a the scale of the shellacking on July the 4th is becoming clearer. The reason I favour electoral reform is that First Past The Post (FPTP) leads to real inequities such as 1983 when the Alliance polled over the quarter of the vote but end up with…
We are now less than 2 weeks to go to the election and postal ballots have already gone out. It is an unusual election, but surely it is the case that every election has unique aspects. When speculating on results, voter turnout may be a key issue. I see this as two issues really. The first is the overall turnout, and second is the turnout by different demographic groups. Will it be the young or the old? C2DE or ABC1?…
Given the sums matched I cannot get that outraged and because I tipped a July election at 20s back in March but those of who operate to a higher standard this is utterly reprehensible behaviour by various Tories. I suspect it fits in the belief that the Tories are sleazy and reminds the voters of things like the PPE scandals. Occasionally I receive embargoed polls and I would never bet based on those polls until they became publicly available. Caesar’s…
The Tories are losing the next election that is as certain as water being wet or the SNP arguing any day that ends with a ‘y’ is a mandate for Scottish independence but what remains uncertain (and makes this election so exciting) is the scale of the Tory defeat with anything from a 1997 style result to a 1931 in reverse result. Based on the Tweets atop this thread are in for a pounding of which there is no suitable…
On the 4th May 1471 the Yorkist forces of Edward IV defeated the Lancastrian Army of Edward, Prince of Westminster in one of the most decisive battles of the Wars Of The Roses. Although slightly outnumbered, the success of the White Rose gang was no great surprise and it is likely winning punters got little better than evens on their wagers. Shrewd punters on the forthcoming election battle of Tewkesbury on July 4th 2024 may however do slightly better, and…
This is further proof for me that there is a Labour mole at CCHQ. TSE
Each of the pollsters have different fieldworks and methodologies which explains the variations (and don’t dismiss a poll because the fieldwork is older, I mean do you want it quick or do you want it good?) This makes betting on politics so much fun, get it right on the spreads and you’re quids in and get it wrong and you’re going to the poorhouse. The Tories are getting walloped but even the best MRP has them losing worse than 1997…
I am not a fan of the best PM metric because the incumbent PM usually ends up having an incumbency bias but this polling is quite notable that the Sunak is doing worse than Ed Davey. Clearly Davey’s stunts aren’t damaging but a vote a winner against Sunak. It may well be a harbinger that the Lib Dems do better in the Con v LD battlegrounds than the polls suggest. On current prices I don’t think the Lib Dems are…