Mark Pack has analysed how many timesthe Tories have polled less than 20% per calendar year. One caveat is that we now have many more polls than before except during the 2010-15 parliament where the daily YouGov skewed things but the chart is very grim for the Blue Team. The last time the Tories were removed from office sub 20% polls were rare and that’s when a lot of pollsters have issues get representative samples which ended up being favourable…
What unites: At first glance, not much. But my contention is that if you dig a little deeper they are all linked by excessive commodification as a result of neo-liberal policies pursued at least since Reagan and Thatcher. The result of these neo-liberal policies? An inability to live well and prosper even in the midst of national and global economies that are richer than ever. We can learn from each of these groups: 1. Reform voters: some at least recognise…
I think Lord Mandelson isn’t being very subtle here. The last thing Labour needs is the voters thinking the election landslide is in the bag and decide they don’t have to vote or that they are safe to vote Lib Dem/Reform/SNP/Greens etc without risking the Labour landslide. My advice to Labour is to not panic if the polls tighten over the next 10 days as it might get those thinking for other parties to back Labour as the overwhelming narrative…
With the bettinggate story getting worse the snippet highlighted in that story has real betting implications. Over on Betfair Labour, at 1.52, are the favourites to win RIchmond & Northallerton whilst with Ladbrokes they are 2/1. Last night I said the polls this close out were pointing to a truly crushing defeat, Sunak losing his seat would confirm that. The sad thing for the Tories are that these are such avoidable mistakes who could have predicted using insider information would…
Whilst election day is twelve days away what often isn’t appreciated enough that right now millions of voters are submitting their postal and proxy votes and if the polls right now are correct then the shellacking the Tories are about to receive will be comparable to 1931 in reverse. A fun betting market would be will the number of Labour MPs elected next month will be closer to 500 than 400. TSE
No, that headline isn’t a typo but based on this YouGov poll of undecided voters conducted for The Times. For the last couple of weeks Tories from the Prime Minister downwards have been banging on about the dangers of supermajority and we can see it has some movement with undecided voters. These are the voters that will determine with the Tories have an extinction level extent or a recoverable defeat, one of things that really damaged the Tories in 1997…
That most heard finding isn’t surprising to me, my mother told me a joke from her ladies who lunch WhatsApp group. Rishi Sunak expected one of his aides to bring out an umbrella when he was announcing the date of the election in the rain but all his aides were too busy placing bets on the date of the election. After the election it wouldn’t surprise me that the two most heard stories about the election will be the political…
TSE