The fine line between a hung parliament and a total Tory wipeout
TSE
Stopping the supermajority Scotland style
I have said for a while that I wouldn’t be surprised if the SNP does better than expected. Support for independence hovers around the 50% mark and if those supporters want their priority to be independence then the SNP is the best vehicle for achieving secession. My belief is that Sunak’s supermajority might end up damaging Labour but having no real benefit for the Tories as it might allow left leaning voters to vote SNP/Green/Lib Dem without risking getting the…
This is bad for Badenoch
Laying the favourite for the Tory leadership is usually a profitable strategy but the reasons why Kemi Badenoch might not win is quite surreal, I suspect she will go postal if she is effectively barred. The Times reports Kemi Badenoch may be unable to stand in a future Conservative leadership contest because of delays in sending out postal votes in her constituency. Dozens of councils have implemented emergency measures such as delivering postal votes by hand after complaints that ballot…
Final Survation MRP predicts a truly terrible night for the SNP
So much for Rishi Sunak’s hung parliament talk, it truly is touch and go on who becomes the His Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition after the election if the Survation MRP is correct. The key take for me is the 99% certainty that Labour will win more seats than 1997. The good news for keeps on coming for Starmer with it looks like he has killed Scottish Nationalism stone dead for a generation. But with the traditional voting intention polls there…
Are we set for the greatest polling failure in history? Sunak thinks so
The Times and Telegraph report that Rishi Sunak is relying on winning back about 180,000 Reform UK supporters in key seats, as he urges them to help him stop a Labour “supermajority”. The prime minister is urging disaffected former Conservatives to “lend” him their vote to stop an “unchecked” Labour government as he spends the final days of the campaign attempting to win wavering voters back from Reform. Tory campaign chiefs believe that, among an electorate of 48 million, the…
Chronicle of a bet foretold: Thin gruel
INTRODUCTION Some of you may remember the “Chronicle of a Bet Foretold” PB series in 2019. It was meant to be a cumulative series but real-life intruded and it fizzled out. It covers my real-life betting and seeing as I have now placed bets on UKGE2024 you’ll forgive me if I resurrect it for the latest instalment. It is not, unfortunately, a happy tale. BETTING SHOPS Most people on PB bet online. They set up accounts and select from a…
An outlier or harbingers?
In the past few weeks we’ve seen a few polls with Labour polling sub 40% and these findings from JL Partners are intriguing. I am expecting a plethora of polling, if these findings are found by other pollsters the Tories might just avoid an extinction level event. TSE
For Boris Johnson fans, in short BJ sucks
The Dolchstoßlegende that Boris Johnson and his fans say that the current pickle the Tory party finds itself in is nothing to do with their man but thanks to John Burn-Murdoch’s analysis points out how poor their stab-in-the-back myth is. This morning I advised laying Boris Johnson as next Tory leader and this is further evidence why you should. I suspect had he have remained PM those polling figures would have gone further in the toilet for him. TSE