I was planning on doing a thread on whether we’d see a crossover on Betfair between James Cleverly and Bobby J Robert Jenrick however that’s not going to happen because in James Cleverly’s role in the Chagos Islands deal, another disastrous legacy of the brief tenure of Liz Truss. Looking at how Betfair has reacted from Cleverly’s Kemi-kaze Badenoch style approach we are going to see a crossover again between Cleverly and Badenoch. I think there may now be a…
Picture: Merchandise sold by Robert Jenrick and his campaign TSE
This is a very usual thread about why you should never read too much in to unweighted subsamples, this is a universality that applies to polls across the world, from Kentucky to Kirkintilloch and everywhere else inbetween. TSE
After the final four made their speeches today Kemi Badenoch continues her collapse in the betting market whilst James Cleverly has surged. Next week Tory MPs will decide who the final two are and I wonder if the value is with Tom Tugendhat because if Jenrick has votes to spare he will want to face Tom Tugendhat rather than James Cleverly and will urge his supporters to vote tactically. Tugendhat is currently 28s on Betfair and 33/1 at Ladbrokes. TSE
I haven’t watched the Veep debate in full but of the clips I have seen neither man had a gaffe and I’d probably make the result a draw but I’d give the win to Vance because he came in with very low expectations. TSE
Like Hezbollah it’s not been a great few days for Kemi Badenoch, she keeps on saying things that make her look in a very bad light. Punters have moved away from in this leadership contest today and moved to James Cleverly which is great news for everybody who followed my advice to lay her and/or back Cleverly at 7/1. She has tomorrow to turn things around otherwise her Kemi-kaze approach brings a divine wind to James Cleverly’s chances of winning…
As a football fan Sir Keir Starmer must feel like Erik ten Hag a man under pressure because things are going sub-optimal for him. Whilst this isn’t a voting intention poll what it does show that after not even three months in power the public would prefer the Tories who they booted out of office after fourteen years. People shouldn’t read too much into this poll, first of all there’s fifty-seven months left for Starmer to turn this around and…
YouGov have accurately predicted the winner of every Tory leadership election this century when it has gone to Tory members so I place great faith in their figures. Sky News report that Robert Jenrick is within touching distance of Kemi Badenoch after a surge in his support, according to an exclusive Sky News poll of Tory members. The latest YouGov survey of Conservative members for Sky News suggests there is a path to victory for all four candidates, although Tom…