politicalbetting.com

The international chaos of the that past week has naturally dominated both the world news and politicalbetting.com, but let us not forget that there are other important matters to discuss… For example, we have our first answer to one of the 2025 Prediction Competition questions: Question 7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election. The answer was 152 of course – AfD easily out-performed our PB mean prediction of 136 seats. And the winners,…

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I try and avoid being smug but seeing Nigel Farage’s chances fall in the next Prime Minister market is great news for myself and those people who followed my advice to lay Nigel Farage in this market. If Farage is on course to win the next general election then I expect Starmer will stand down and be replaced somebody from the Labour party who will become our next PM before the election. There’s also a non zero chance that the…

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One of the reasons some are reluctant to back Reform to end up with most seats at the next general election is Nigel Farage has a history of not working well with colleagues and this is another example. The timing of this is curious. I wonder how Elon Musk will react to the treatment of Rupert Lowe, the man he backed recently. TSE

Rupert Lowe has gone public in his criticisms of Nigel Farage as he realises Nigel Farage is acting like the messiah when in fact he’s a very naughty boy. When you’re a party of 5 MPs then having one of your MPs publicly criticising the leader is going to cause problems. Looking at the next Reform leader betting market i think the value might be with Lee Anderson or Suella Braverman, the latter seems on an inexorable defection to Reform….

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A recently announced ceasefire has brought a (temporary) end to what has been dubbed the Gaza war. I would argue that this is just the latest chapter in a war that has now raged for 75 years on and off. Timeline of key events 1917 – Balfour declaration supports the establishment of a homeland for the Jews 1948 – Creation of Israel and the first Arab-Israeli War 1967 – Six-Day War 1973 – Yom Kippur War 1978 – First Israeli…

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This polling from Ipsos is fascinating, I find it interesting that support/opposition for the Chagos deal remains largely unmoved when the public are told the specifics of the deal. TSE

TSE

For gamblers 538 was an essential website as it allowed you deal with the plethora of polls that are published in America and see the trends and the historical trends. Hopefully somebody steps up and fills the gap caused by this. TSE