The betting chart over the last 24 hours shows a sharp movement to Harris since the debate, it isn’t just punters who thought the Vice President who won the debate, even the infamously pro Trump Fox News called the debate for Harris. Watching the debate on delay I thought the other winner from the debate was Nikki Haley whose prediction that the first party to ditch their elderly candidate would win the election as Trump really looked old and bad…
We have to wait until the week beginning the 7th of October before the next round of voting but I would be very worried if I was Kemi Badenoch because I suspect one of Tom Tugendhat or James Cleverly will get knocked out next and their votes will go to the last man standing out of those two. Given the closeness of the race I cannot see any candidate lending votes to keep Kemi Badenoch out, I think that will…
Another day another example of the Badenoch camp coming up with excuses why their candidate is polling so badly with Tory MPs, if I were being uncharitable I would describe her camp’s comments in language she would approve of as utter woke nonsense. Today sees the second round of voting and I think this belies the fact that Badenoch is panicking as Tory MPs realise Badenoch is not as good as she thinks she is. I cannot think of single…
Not a lot of movement from last week, but what there is has generally been in Trump’s favour. The debate might move the needle a bit more noticeably, but in what direction. Changes from last week:All four national polling figures move slightly towards Trump: 1.0% for Nate Silver, 0.5% for 538, 0.4% for RCP, and 0.2% for Princeton’s meta-margin. In the Electoral College, 538 has Arizona moving from Harris to Trump, but still has Harris winning overall. RCP has Nevada…
With round two tomorrow I wonder if this polling from Savanta might sway Tory MPs. I think this is good news for James Cleverly but we shall see. TSE
I know I am the last man on the planet to criticise another person’s approach to relationships but I have been giggling like an idiot at Jeremy Corbyn’s approach to relationships. When your partner complains about a lack of social activities in your relationship, taking her to see the tomb of Karl Marx isn’t going to keep her happy. As for taking her to France and taking instant macaroni and other processed foods is again a courageous strategy. Perhaps this…
For over a week Donald Trump has been the favourite on Betfair and with the forthcoming debate on Tuesday evening (American time) might change that. Normally debates don’t matter but Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in June saw a massive change on Betfair and saw Biden eventually quit the race. In 2020 (in both the primary and the Vice Presidential) debates Kamala Harris wasn’t that impressive considering she is a lawyer and prosecutor but if Trump puts in a performance like…
In today’s The Times supporters of Kemi Badenoch are whining that Tory MPs are voting tactically In today’s The Times supporters of Kemi Badenoch are whining that Tory MPs are voting tactically Supporters of Kemi Badenoch fear that she is the victim of a “dirty tricks” campaign designed to push her out of the Tory leadership race. Champions of the housing, communities and local government shadow secretary are privately questioning the results of the first round of the contest, which…