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This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

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I’m very intrigued by this analysis by the New York Times, as seen in the tweets above, it probably explains the current prices on Betfair where Trump is very close to Biden. There’s always a danger of refighting the last war, as Elliott Morris acknowledges, but in 2012 the RCP nationwide polling average had Obama winning by 0.7% when in reality he ended up winning by 3.9%, if we see that kind of error then Biden’s looking at something close…

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The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win?

The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win?

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Ladbrokes have a super six market of states, of these six, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, how many will Trump win. To be honest I’m not seeing any value here and see this as a market that will pay for the bonuses for those who compile the odds for markets like this. If you were to work out the accumulator odds for all individual six states to be won by Trump using the odds offered by Ladbrokes…

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It looks as though Trump won’t press ahead with a Supreme Court nominee this side of the election

It looks as though Trump won’t press ahead with a Supreme Court nominee this side of the election

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The big development in US politics in the past hour has been the above news from the White House that seems to suggest that Trump won’t seek to push through a Supreme Court nomination before the Presidential Election on November 3rd. This comes as something as a surprise given the comments by Senate Majority leader, Mitch McConnell. If this is indeed the case my guess is that is that they weren’t confident that they would get the backing required from…

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on there being an electoral college tie, by comparison Paddy Power are offering 33/1, I regard the Ladbrokes politics team led by Matthew Shaddick are the shrewdest political bookies out there, so this discrepancy caught my attention. There are a few routes to a 269 tie for example, ‘if Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nebraska’s 2nd District vote for Joe Biden rather than for Donald Trump as they did in 2016. Those shifts, if all other state outcomes…

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Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

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A number of groups publish statistical models, usually updated daily, which attempt to assign probabilities to the possible outcomes of the US presidential election. The best-known is Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com. Others include models from The Economist, Decision Desk HQ, and the New Statesman. These models all work in a similar way. They start by trying to get a best estimate of the current opinion poll averages, both at national and state level, correcting as best they can for the perceived…

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Who will win the first Presidential debate?

Who will win the first Presidential debate?

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Ladbrokes have a market up on the first scheduled Presidential debate for the end of September and my first instinct is to back Biden. Success equals performance minus anticipation and thanks to the Trump and his campaign they’ve lowered the bar for ‘Sleepy Joe’ so low that not even a baby Hobbit could walk under that bar. Then there’s what the Trump campaign have been up to President Donald Trump’s campaign launched a series of Facebook ads on Thursday featuring…

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Time to be betting on Biden in Texas where new poll has him 3% ahead

Time to be betting on Biden in Texas where new poll has him 3% ahead

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A Data for Progress poll on the White House race in Texas, the second biggest state, has Biden leading Trump by 48% to 45%. This follows a Public Policy Polling survey yesterday that had Biden 1% ahead. In other recent polls over the past few days the Trump lead has been down to just 1%. This has prompted me to make my biggest bet so far of WH2020 – backing Biden on Betfair at 4.5 Of the states that might just…

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Sporting Index have Biden on 281 Electoral College Votes in their opening spread betting markets

Sporting Index have Biden on 281 Electoral College Votes in their opening spread betting markets

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The Spread Betting firm SportingIndex has now got up its WH2020 markets and the early prices have Biden on 281 ECVs which is 11 above the number required. This is a form of betting that lends itself well to elections because if you “BUY BIDEN” at the stated level the more ECVs he secures the more money that you will make. Alas it works the other way if you get it wrong. The more you are wrong the more you…

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