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If the Democrats win the Presidency, the House and the Senate they’ll be in a position to make future elections easier

If the Democrats win the Presidency, the House and the Senate they’ll be in a position to make future elections easier

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For starters Washington DC could be a state in it own right One of the oddities of US politics is that those who live in the capitol, Washington DC, are rated as second class citizens when it comes to elections. For they are unable to have voting representatives in the House and the Senate as is reflected in the slogan on car registration plates – see above. It used to be even worse than that and DC residents were not…

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This is starting to look like landslide territory.

This is starting to look like landslide territory.

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What does Trump have in his armoury if the voters trust Joe Biden more on the economy? A fortnight ago I said that with the pollster Quinnipiac Donald Trump was the preferred choice of the American voters to manage the economy, but it is becoming clear that with a few pollsters Trump doesn’t hold that advantage. As with the UK general election of 2015 and the EU referendum the following year it was clear (in hindsight) that the supplementaries were…

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My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race

My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race

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I’ll let you all into a little secret, it is entirely possible the stonking huge polling leads that Biden has turn out to be accurate but he still doesn’t win the Presidency. One scenario is where Biden gets votes where he doesn’t need them and Trump gets the votes where he needs them, but the scenario I’m going to look at today is that America isn’t a functioning democracy. With a pandemic on it has been obvious for some time…

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The final debate: Trump better than last time but this was no game-changer

The final debate: Trump better than last time but this was no game-changer

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Betting at 0415 BST Biden 66% Trump 34% I did not stay up to watch the debate but from the reactions I’ve managed to collate it is clear that Trump did better than the first debate but he scored no knockout blows against Biden. In the betting Trump edged up 2% and Biden dropped 2% on Betfair. This was from the verdict by Taegan Goddard at PoliticalWire: After the chaotic and mostly incoherent first presidential debate, Donald Trump’s advisers pleaded…

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As we go into the final WH2020 debate Biden edges up further in the betting

As we go into the final WH2020 debate Biden edges up further in the betting

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Overnight there is the last in the programme of TV debates between Trump and Biden. There were going to be three of them but Trump would not agree to the terms set out by the independent debates commission which meant second one did not take place. Tonight’s event includes a new feature – the contenders will be muted while the other is making statements. This comes at a time when maybe a third of Americans have already voted with in…

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Anatomy of an Error – Why forecasts missed the 2016 result

Anatomy of an Error – Why forecasts missed the 2016 result

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On election day 2016 the 538 forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning. Of course, she did not. Forecasts now given Biden an even bigger advantage, but coverage of the race is haunted by the miss in 2016. It shouldn’t be. We know what went wrong in 2016, and we can see that Biden’s advantage is more resilient to the issue. The Midwest Mistake It is sometimes said that the polls were wrong in 2016, but it wasn’t…

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If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid

If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid

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Looking at those key states, worth 55 electoral college votes that Trump won in 2016 it is understandable why people are talking now about a Biden victory but the size of it, but from those same polls there’s a sliver of optimism for Trump because the same polls that gives Biden hefty leads they also show this Now we’ve seen plenty of occasions across the world when the party leading the voting intention loses the election because they’ve trailed on…

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