politicalbetting.com

PBers should be familiar with the concept of a trading bet and I think Marjorie Taylor Greene winning the presidency in 2028 falls into that category. Normally I would have expected her to court the hardcore MAGA types that believe George Soros funds Jewish space lasers that help illegal immigrants invade America and caused Covid-19 but as we can see in the above Tweets she appears to becoming de-radicalised. She might end building a coalition of voters, or she might…

Read More Read More

I will ask again, how and why a government that was elected with a majority of 174 last year collapses three years later. Why would they go for an early election? I would not be backing a 2027 election even as a trading bet. TSE

This poll from YouGov confirms a hunch that I’ve had for a while, Reform are simultaneously the country’s most popular party and the country’s most unpopular party which bodes well for tactical anti Reform voting (see the Caerphilly by-election as an example.) The other questions find further credence for this ‘YouGov also found that there was still a clear majority of voters strongly opposed to the concept of a Reform government. About half (49 per cent) of all voters thought…

Read More Read More

I know it is gauche to keep on talking about your successful betting strategies but I love a good trading bet, if you followed my tip from September 2024 on Ed Miliband succeeding Sir Keir Starmer then you should be considering trading out for a profit. You can back Ed Miliband as next PM on Betfair at 32.5 which I think represents value. TSE

TSE

I have to be honest getting Andrew Cuomo endorsed by Donald Trump, Stephen Miller, and Elon Musk might not be sub-optimal for the Zohran Madami. But if that AtlasIntel poll is right then these endorsements have the potential to see the Republican candidate, Curtis Silwa’s vote squeezed like a Chippendale’s arse at a hen party then it could had Andrew Cuomo victory. TSE

In 2014 one of the main reasons I thought and back No to win was the fact the Yes side couldn’t come up with a plausible answer for the currency an independent Scotland would use as well as ancillary questions like who would be the lender of last resort. Eleven years on it appears the independence side haven’t come up with a plan and would rather not the issue be discussed. As The Times notes why this is important. Before…

Read More Read More

Tomorrow sees the election for Mayor of New York and it would be quite the fairytale of New York if Andrew Cuomo wins given the current polling, the fact he lost in the primary to Zohran Mamdani and more pertinently the reasons he had to resign in disgrace as Governor of New York in 2021. I have thought for a while there might be some value in backing Cuomo given the left wing campaign Mamdani has been fighting on. Perhaps…

Read More Read More