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Today’s More in Common fits in with the YouGov poll, really bad ratings for Starmer/Labour but Labour ahead of Reform and the Tories in a close and messy three way but for me the intriguing finding from this polling is how 2024 Tories and splitting on who would make the best PM. My immediate thought went back to the 2015 general election polling where plenty of people said they were voting Labour but preferred David Cameron as PM which fitted…

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I think polling confirms just how damaged the Tory brand has become. In the past a government with these poor approval ratings would expect to be trailing in the voting intention polls by substantial margins. The question is can Kemi Badenoch turn it around? I suspect it is beyond her and all other politicians in the parliamentary Conservative party. TSE

Unlike some I am not predicting the outcome of the next election at this time. The only prediction I am confident in making is those people who think adding the Tory and Reform vote shares together will be the vote share an alliance between the two would receive at the next election are going to be proven epically wrong, like Sion Simon in the autumn of 2007. As we can see from the YouGov poll there’s significant opposition to a…

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When the final chapter of this parliament is written I am fairly certain that the cut to the winter fuel allowance will feature heavily. As somebody who supports the cut it was badly handled and it is no surprise why people are switching the way they are, but will iy matter at the next election? TSE

It is interesting to see what the voters and punters think about Nigel Farage’s expectation. i am not feeling confident in calling this next election this far out, my other caveat is that say the current polls turn out be the actual election result (which history has shown to be unlikely) we have three parties on around 25% each plus or minus a few points. Under FPTP that could lead to utter carnage, where uneven vote shares could see the…

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TSE

One of the reasons many punters, myself included, are reluctant to bet heavily, or bet at all on the 2028 Republican nomination and/or the 2028 presidential election is that Donald Trump may try and run for a third term. Normally the bar for a change to the American constitution is quite high, however given with a compliant majority on the Supreme Court, who will go down in infamy like the Taney, court then I wouldn’t be surprised to see the…

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Looking at these word clouds I know the attention of most people will be drawn to the prominence of Nigel Farage but for me the most striking thing is that you have to squint and use a magnifying glass to find Kemi Badenoch’s name on the January 2025 word cloud. For those unfamiliar with word clouds, the larger the person’s name on the word cloud the more people support that person. As a lifelong Conservative I have to admit I…

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