I just cannot see the logistics of how Nigel Farage becomes Tory leader before 2026, nor do I expect a clamour within the volunteer party where Farage’s shilling for Putin goes down badly. So if you fancy tying up your money for just over a year for a ten percent return then this is the market for you. TSE
Whilst the best PM has an incumbency bias that more than half of don’t say either Starmer and Badenoch bodes ill for a decent turnout at the election. Given the past few months he has had Starmer will be delighted that on this metric he is preferred to Badenoch. TSE
I don’t think this polling says anything personally about Starmer and Badenoch but more about their parties. As we saw with Jeremy Corbyn it is very hard for Labour to replace their leader if they aren’t willing to go. For the Tories the reason more people think Badenoch won’t make it to the election is that since 2001 only one Tory leader has lasted more then thirty-eight months in the job and that was the exceptional David Cameron. Ladbrokes has…
When you compare the current Labour performance versus the Tory performance in May of this year then this bodes ill for Labour. The good news for them is that we are potentially over fifty-five months away from the next general election which is more than enough time for Labour to turn things around, I suspect Starmer will need a new Chanellor to help turn things around. TSE
You didn’t have to share John Prescott’s politics to admire him, I liked his loyalty to Tony Blair coupled with the fact behind the scenes there was no sycophancy. I admired the fact that when a pro fox hunting thug assaulted him Prescott went from being two Jags to two jabs. TSE
Politico are reporting that Opinion polls are inaccurate, distort political debate and should be banned during the final weeks of an election campaign. That’s the view of the strategist who led the British Conservative Party’s operations in 2024 and 2019. In an interview for a new book on this year’s U.K. general election, Tory campaign director Isaac Levido slammed the “unhealthy” dominance of polling in the media coverage of the campaign, which his side lost to Keir Starmer’s Labour Party…
One of the reasons I think Kemi Badenoch will fail as Tory leader is that she lacks judgment and I agree with the views of Dan Hodges. As somebody who is going to be negatively impacted by Labour’s plans to charge VAT on school fees I know sympathy for people in my position is so small it could easily fit in a matchbox and not touch the sides. I expect once the public becomes fully aware of the millions of…
Kemi Badenoch’s challenge is convert those don’t knows into positives. Sir Keir Starmer’s inauspicious start continues, his net favourability is minus 29%, whereas David Cameron’s net satisfaction* four months into his premiership was 24%, Nick Clegg’s was a net 17% at the same point. TSE *A slightly inexact comparison due to the wording of the questions