Third term problems
i find this polling intriguing because I was expecting more Republican voters to a) want Trump to have a third term and b) believe the constitution allows him to do so. TSE
Labour cuts v Tory cuts
‘A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.’ – Gul Dukat, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine. I find this polling fascinating, for the simple fact that the public see Labour’s cuts as significantly more unfair than the coalition cuts. George Osborne must be experiencing a frisson of comfort upon seeing this polling and channelling his inner Gul Dukat. This polling is the…
When the shit hits the tan
When it comes to winning elections in America, it’s the economy, stupid, which is why I thought Donald Trump would win last year given his lead on the economic questions so these findings are important for the midterms and the 2028 election. My expectation is that if Trump sticks to his tariff plans then his ratings will get much worse as the reality of tariffs hits the average American. Trump won thanks to the cost of living crisis and if…
Trump number 2 specials
William Hill have some markets on what Trump’s second term will deliver. A golden rule of betting is not to get involved in markets when the bookie doesn’t offer both sides of the market however I am attracted by the 5/1 on Trump to take the USA out of NATO. The way he is behaving it wouldn’t be a shock to see it happen. TSE
A Starmer boost, an Ayrshire hotelier, Brexit dividends (sic), and, chlorinated chickens
I find this polling fascinating because it covers some diverse but some interconnected issues. I think Starmer will be delighted his handling has5 led to some good polling for him. Brexiteers will be disappointed to see a 10% tariff as a Brexit dividend but 23% say it makes Brexit the right decision whereas 34% disagree. TSE
Party brands
On Friday I pointed out that Starmer’s ratings were improving (and Farage’s ratings fell) and it is no surprise to see Labour’s ratings improve whilst Reform’s fall. I am keen on this type of polling because it gives an indication what level of tactical voting we might see against the parties. Normally I would expect Labour to have a substantial edge on this but based on this Labour might not have much advantage over Reform but the caveat is that…
Punters react to the tariff announcements
Assuming the free and fair elections are held in 2028 then the longer Trump’s tariffs are in place then the bigger the Republican Party defeat. Last year I regularly posted on PB that the economic polling would presage a Trump victory, particularly on the cost of living issue Trump’s tariffs will push up prices to a rather high level and that will bugger up the Republican Party (as will the carnage on the stock market.) In the way Boris Johnson…
It’s going a bit Liz Truss for Donald Trump
When Liz Truss soiled the bed and spooked the financial markets during her fugacious tenure as Prime Minister the men in grey suits intervened to end her premiership which reflects well on the Tory that they acted swiftly, after a fashion. America has some options to oust an America Liz Truss such as impeachment or the Twenty-fifth Amendment but that requires a sufficient number of Republican Party members of Congress or the cabinet to grow a spine but that isn’t…