Why tax cuts might not be a panacea for the Tories
TSE
Public sympathies
Being seen as pro Palestinian might be a voter winner, so perhaps the contretemps in Rochdale might not be so problematic for Labour and their candidate. Interestingly the criticisms of Israel/the pro Palestinian comments of The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton might also boost the Tories however salience applies here. Things like the NHS, the economy, and dentists will determine how most people vote not events in the Holy Lands. TSE
I agree with David Gauke
The logic underpinning David Gauke’s argument is very persuasive, this part in particular. Part of the right’s narrative after an election defeat will be, first, that the Tories leaked too many votes to Reform and, second, that the right’s best communicators were not employed in making the Tories’ case. The solution will be obvious to the Tory right. Bring back Boris and bring in Nigel. Unite the right and have in place a team who can connect with ordinary people. It…
Victory begets victory?
If Starmer looks like a winner and the next general election result seems a foregone conclusion then there may well be complacency which could lower turnout but I expect that’s a Tory hope, my expectation is that there are enough voters who would crawl over broken glass to vote the Tories out. TSE
An update on the Trump crime family
I think this judgment is what will hurt Donald Trump a lot personally, being financially castrated. Coupled with his other legal problems it may solidify his support with the insurrectionist MAGA mob it will repel independents and that’s what will hurt him politiically. Hurrah for the legal system that will come for you whether you are a pleb or President. TSE
Sir Graham Brady’s postie may get a hernia in the next few days
What is most striking is that three out of four worst Tory by election defeats to Labour since 1945 have come in the last year under Sunak’s leadership, at some point Tory MPs will be thinking even a tub of lard, a lettuce, or Liz Truss would do a better job than Sunak. I suspect a significant body of Tory MPs will think the way to salvation is chasing the 13% of Reform voters which will be a mistake. The…
Is this a by-election first?
The voting stops in an hour and I’m utterly mesmerised by the tweets above. Post your predictions on today’s by-elections in the comments. TSE
Not the news Rishi wanted on double by-election day
As voters in Kingswood and Wellingborough go out today to vote if this MRP is anywhere near accurate then Labour are going to win these by-elections handsomely. Over on Betfair there is a market on how many seats the Tories will lose, the value is, apart from laying the Tories losing more than 400 seats which is an impossibility considering they only won 365 seats at the last election, could be backing the Tories to lose in the 250-299 and…