Could this be a gamechanger?
The betting on Betfair over the last 12 months. TSE
The return of Farage
I suspect Nigel Farage will prefer to continue acting like a third rate concierge to Donald Trump than come back to lead Reform. Reform seem disorganised and Richard Tice is having to pump his own money into Reform this isn’t a party that will struggle to organise a decent election campaign. I think the value is backing less than 10.5% in this market from Ladbrokes but I will understand why others may disagree. TSE
Will we see another defection today?
After the unexpected defection of Natalie Elphicke last week I wouldn’t be surprised to see another defection today. Two out of the three Tory MPs to Labour defectors this parliament have occured right before PMQs. TSE
Not looking good for Sunak as he approaches Truss levels
It seems every few days a new bit of polling comes out which shows Rishi Sunak matching or exceeding the dire polling Liz Truss delivered which made her the UK’s shortest serving PM. Now only 14% of the public think it is fairly/very likely that Rishi Sunak can win the next election, I would encourage this 14% of voters to open a Betfair account so seasoned punters can introduce them to the joys of gambling. In Sunak’s defence he was…
We’re going to need a bigger swingometer
Why it could be worse than 1997 for the Tories For me when it comes to general election the best pointers are the leader ratings and the economic ratings, I live by the mantras that it’s the economy, stupid and the leaders. It’s not looking good for Sunak’s team and the above findings show why it could be much worse for the Tories. As we can see in 1997 Ken Clarke and the Tories were preferred to Labour on the…
Lock him up has majority support
With Michael Cohen starting to testify today I suspect this might be tipping point for the self confessed pussy grabber. TSE
Why cutting interest rates will be no panacea for the Tories
There are some Tories who think an interest rate cut will help them in the polls as mortgage costs come down yet this polling points to the exact opposite happening, I think there’s a couple of things driving this. Firstly if mortgage costs do come down a bit they will still be substantially higher than when the perpetuator of an antisemitic trope Liz Truss became Prime Minister so the financial hurt is still real. Secondly as we can see with…
Lessons from history
I like this analysis by Tom Calver of The Times. My key takeaway is from the final tweet is how accurate the polls are two weeks before the election. The other key takeaway is the polls always narrow once the election is called which is something punters and everybody else should remember lest it lead to panic/pessimism/false optimism depending on your view point. Betting on a hung parliament now appears to be a courageous decision in the Yes, Prime Minister…