Only 17% of Americans expect Trump to serve time
The key point for me is the distribution of those now more/less likely to vote Trump, Trump takes a real hit with Independents which could be utterly damaging for his chances in November. TSE
Ayrshire hotelier and convicted felon remains the favourite for the White House race in November
Graphic: The Betfair US Presidential market over the last 5 days TSE
Home Alone 2 star found guilty on all 34 counts in criminal case
Trump taken down by a porn star and a Pecker When I heard the jury had reached a swift verdict my expectation was Trump to be found not guilty so this is quite the result. I am currently up to my eyeballs on drugs fighting a viral infection so I will need to think about this but my expectation is that this is sub-optimal for Trump given the number of voters who said they will not vote for a convicted…
Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse
Next week represents one of the few potential game changers in the election campaign, the first debate between Starmer and Sunak, on ITV1 next Tuesday, this head to head, moderated by Juliet Etchingham, will be to the detriment for the parties that are not part of the big two in Great Britain. Sunak goes in with low expectations so has the potential to surprise on the upside. Lawyer Starmer often wins PMQs and makes Sunak look petulant and not in…
Your morning must read
Adam Drummond of Opinium has done an explainer on their methodology, it is useful for those who think the forecaster pollsters will be right and those unsure about the methodology. TSE
The Purge: Election Year
It has been an exciting day for political aficionados with the apparent purge of some left leaning Labour MPs with the most high profile being Diane Abbott. This YouGov poll shows the public do support Starmer’s decision although Labour voter’s disagree. I have never been a Diane Abbott fan. If there’s one thing that will really annoy me is hypocrisy on education and she’s got a lot of hypocrisy there as this link shows. She’s also made quite a few…
One week on and betting markets remain utterly convinced about Starmer winning a majority
Graphic – Betfair over the last week on the overall majority market A week ago Rishi Sunak announced the election on the 4th of July and as we can see the first week of the campaign has hardly changed the expectation of gamblers. Starmer’s safety first approach is working so far. TSE
The Swinney slump doesn’t look like stopping
Ever since John Swinney replaced Humza Yousaf as First Minister every subsequent poll has shown the SNP going backwards and this Survation is no different, whilst there is a risk of the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc that there appears to be no better leader than John Swinney available for the SNP. What really should worry the SNP is that Sir Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar have better leader ratings than John Swinney which usually is an indicator…