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Latest on the Labour leadership race

Latest on the Labour leadership race

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We may soon see crossover between Burnham & Cooper Betfair exchange trend chart showing Burnham's odds as % age chance pic.twitter.com/2JtiIAkO2k — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 21, 2015 Betfair exchange trend chart showing Cooper's odds as % age chance pic.twitter.com/HP7A9FuY7i — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 21, 2015 Implied percentages from the Betfair odds for winning the Labour leadership just now are 39.37% for Burnham and 36.23% for Cooper. This may just be political gravity bringing the odds back down to a more…

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Betting on the next Labour leader leading the party into the next general election

Betting on the next Labour leader leading the party into the next general election

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There is a risk of Labour overcompensating for not removing Brown & Miliband. During Wednesday’s debate, Andy Burnham and the other contenders admitted they would stand down as leader if they were a hindrance to Labour winning in 2020, the fact we’re having this debate is down to Labour realising they may have done better at the 2010 and 2015 elections if they had taken the opportunities to remove Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. Any mistake or poor polling will…

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Ipsos Mori finds support at a 24 year high for remaining in the EU

Ipsos Mori finds support at a 24 year high for remaining in the EU

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75% would vote to remain to stay in the EU whilst 25% would vote to leave One of the reasons I like the Ipsos Mori polling on the EU, is that they’ve been polling on the topic for nearly forty years, they have another poll out today for the the Evening Standard. If the historic in-out referendum were to be staged now, 66 per cent say they would vote to remain members and 22  per cent would vote to quit. Excluding…

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Boris reminds us once again why the normal rules of politics don’t apply to him

Boris reminds us once again why the normal rules of politics don’t apply to him

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Last night it was reported Boris Johnson’s relationship with the capital’s black cab trade has become further troubled after the Sun and Daily Mail newspapers released a video showing the mayor of London on his bicycle telling a taxi driver “to f*ck off and die – and not in that order”. The exchange in Islington, north London, was caught on camera by a passerby. The driver, one of many black cab operators furious at the way Transport for London, overseen…

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Betting on who will finish last in the Labour leadership elections

Betting on who will finish last in the Labour leadership elections

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Thinking about last night’s debate, this market is hard to call, Jeremy Corbyn did well, and seemed to be the most authentic and had a passion that others seemed to lack. Yvette Cooper came off as the safety first candidate, whilst Andy Burnham had an annoying habit of talking over Laura Kuenessberg and the other candidates which did not look good. As Mike noted on twitter last night, Andy Burnham reminded us why in 2010 just 8.5% of Labour members…

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The Labour Deputy Leader race is a five horse race

The Labour Deputy Leader race is a five horse race

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Creasy, Bradshaw and Eagle join Flint & Watson on the ballot paper I wonder if the biggest effect of this will be a boost for Sadiq Khan, as all the main leader/deputy leader contenders being white, as the following twitter exchange featuring the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush shows. Labour's leadership candidates are all white – does that matter? http://t.co/pkBN2kw8G2 pic.twitter.com/BiKE36v64x — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) June 17, 2015 @robfordmancs Indeed. I think this may have turned the Mayoral race on its…

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Polling Matters / Political Betting Podcast with James Morris – EdM’s private pollster

Polling Matters / Political Betting Podcast with James Morris – EdM’s private pollster

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This week Polling Matters with Politicalbetting.com Keiran Pedley speaks to James Morris of GQR – Ed Miliband’s private pollster during the 2015 General Election and puts to him some questions raised by PBers. Topics covered include the following (and more): 1) How Labour’s internal polling differed from public polls? 2) What Labour’s polling did (and did not) tell the party and when? 3) Did Ed Miliband really think he was going to win? 4) Did Labour know Ed Balls was…

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Tuesday evening round up

Tuesday evening round up

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Donald Trump enters the race to be President. I’ll make a bold prediction now. Donald Trump will never be President of the United States of America Donald Trump enters the race to be President in 2016. http://t.co/hakRCMjDFh — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 16, 2015   Today’s essential must read. Conhome have published the inside story on how the Tories won the election, here is an excerpt. Having picked the seats and selected the candidates, the next step was to understand key voters in each constituency. Lynton…

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