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The latest MRP confirms the patterns we’ve seen with others and not dissimilar to standard VI polls when put through Electoral Calculus, where we are not fazed when polls show the Tories sub 100 and/or Sir Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition. Survation note One third of seats are currently decided by fewer than 10 points, and 132 are decided by fewer than 5 points. In these seats, Labour leads in 65, the Conservatives in 47, and the Liberal…

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The chart above shows the movement on Betfair’s US Presidential winner market over the last 24 hours. TSE

The Sun are reporting that One glimmer of hope for the new regime is that the Tories look set to eat each other for a few years longer — with some party figures barely waiting for a vote to be cast before beginning a very public post-mortem. Wiser hands want a delay to any leadership election conclusion well into the autumn, or even December, as happened after their defeat in 2005. Deputy PM Oliver Dowden, under the beady watch of his mentor Lord…

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If the Tories do experience an extinction level result next week then in real votes this type of finding where the Tories and SNP are on 7% nationwide with 18-24 year olds could happen. Like polls showing the Lib Dems on course to finish second ahead of the Tories, these findings do not really shock any more. TSE

For the past few years I have expected the Tories to do badly because tactical voting and if you look at those relative net favourability figures for Sunak, Farage, and their parties compared to Labour and the Lib Dems this seems to confirm my expectation. This means the Tories & Reform should do (much) worse than UNS suggests. TSE

Tonight sees the ridiculously premature American Presidential debate and this is a potential game changer and I can see this being the only debate of the campaign and if one of the candidates has a shocker it might be the narrative of the campaign. TSE

When Rishi Sunak debates Sir Keir Starmer in head to heads Sunak often displays the anguish of a man with a wasp trapped under his foreskin, tonight he seemed a bit more feisty if we had seen more of this I suspect the campaign would have been a bit different. I suspect this debate will not change the fundamentals, Sunak is the worst rated PM at the eve of an election and the same applies to his government. In around…

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I feel like the Ancient Mariner boring anybody I meet telling just how bad it is looking for the Tories. Two MRPs today are just further proof that the Tories are about to experience their Götterdämmerung on July 4th. This is the stand out observation from the WeThink MRP ‘This means the Conservatives substantially underperform uniform swing. While Reform takes the most Conservative votes, Labour reaps the rewards. In every constituency, voters are taking the opportunity to kick the government’….

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