Vox populi, vox Dei
TSE
Boris Johnson has worse net ratings than Starmer, Badenoch, and Farage
I continue to advise to lay Boris Johnson in the next Tory leader markets for several reasons, he’s not an MP, Kemi Badenoch feels like she will be ousted within the next 12 months or so. Another reason is that he’s not that well regarded by the public, leader approval ratings can often give a better outcome of elections than voting intention polls and there’s plenty of Tories and others who will tell you that Sir Keir Starmer is a…
America and the UK are standing shoulder to shoulder when it comes to not defending Israel
I suspect this polling is a result of the way the Israelis have behaved in Gaza even longstanding supporters of Israel have accused of them committing genocide. My expectation is support for backing Israel will fall further as more and more people become of aware of Israel doing a Tony Blair and lied and exaggerated about another country’s weapons of mass destruction. TSE
Next cabinet minister to go
Looking at this market from William Hill I wonder if the value might be with Bridget Phillipson who has been tipped to be sacked in a forthcoming reshuffle because her stint as Education Secretary has been suboptimal. I am also tempted to back Shabana Mahmood at 5/1 because she’s become very vocal on opposing the assisted suicide bill but the tipping point for her might be Labour effectively decriminalises abortion in England and Wales all the way up to birth,…
Will we will see Nigel Farage’s rumba this parliament?
Ladbrokes have some markets on what Nigel Farage may do, a golden rule when it comes to betting is not to get involved in betting markets where the bookie doesn’t offer both sides of the bet. Nigel Farage gas previously appeared on I Am A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here so I can see the attraction of appearing on Strictly so I am tempted to take the 25/1, this may be a winner if Farage appears in a Strictly…
Improving public services, Labour’s best hope?
One area I think Reform are vulnerable are on their DOGE mania which is backed up by the polls so I am not surprised by this poll. If Labour can maintain this sort of lead by election day then I think they will have a better result than the polls currently imply. The voters are rather passionate about the national religion that is the NHS. TSE
An apology to Doctor David Bull, Reform’s new chairman
On Thursday the 12th of June 2025 Anno Domini, politicalbetting.com published an article headlined ‘Meet Reform’s new chairman’ David Bulll which was drenched in sarcasm about the former presenter of ‘Most Haunted’ following his interview with Richard Madeley. The polling from More in Common shows I was wrong and that Dr Bull is in fact the perfect candidate to be chairman of Reform, I would like to apologise to anybody hurt or offended by my sarcasm on Thursday. TSE
Three years is a long time in politics
Based on comments by some on PB, the media, and indeed some fatalism within the Labour Party the outcome of the next election is already inevitable. I am reminded that at the end of May 2021 Labour were an implied 8.3% chance of winning a majority at the next general election, spoiler alert: Sir Keir Starmer won the next general election with a 174 seat majority, a lot of that was down to the Tories but it is a reminder…