politicalbetting.com

I find this polling from Ipsos intriguing. The précis of the findings is the pubic think Starmer & Reeves are, economically, nearly as bad the pandemic and the Truss/Kwarteng experience yet Labour are still the most trusted to manage the economy but that score is 23% which is like being the most beautiful turkey at the farm in the run up to Christmas. The first chart shows that when governments get ratings this bad they seldom go on and win…

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TSE

I know it is gauche to point out that you are right but seeing this findings from Survation/Labour List gives me great satisfaction. In the past few months I have written I thought the current betting favourite, Wes Streeting, is a lay in the next Labour leader market whilst I wrote that Ed Miliband was value at 100/1 to succeed Sir Keir Starmer so seeing Miliband top of this polling and seeing Streeting towards the bottom confirms my strategy. I…

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Last November I wrote a piece pointing out the Conservatives were the 1/10 favourites to win the 2025 Canadian election. Whilst I was expecting some swingback I wasn’t expecting this level of movement but thanks to the Ayrshire hotelier has changed things. When it comes elections and the betting therein we might have to factor things like this. Imagine Sir Keir Starmer calls an election for late 2028 which Reform are set to win and then Trump intervenes and sees…

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It is going to be a long four years. TSE

If I were Robert Jenrick I would be sharing this finding from JL Partners to my colleagues pointing out the public see Kemi Badenoch as useless as the left hand side of the Countdown clock. I am wondering if backing the 5/2 that Ladbrokes are offering on 2025 being the year Badenoch is replaced might be value, previously my expectation was 2026 if the Tories finish behind Labour and Reform in the Scottish and Welsh devolved elections. TSE

I suspect if Elon Musk (and Donald Trump) try to intervene in British politics it will backfire, Rupert Lowe will be best advised to swerve an endorsement from the The Fast & The Fuhrer. TSE