politicalbetting.com

This polling confirms my theory that Rishi Sunak erred in holding a July election, had he waited until the autumn then Nigel Farage would have focussed his time and energies on being Donald Trump’s personal proctologist rather than focussing on the UK general election. Reform supporters must be toasting Sunak’s timing with a glass or two of Bucks Fizz. This will be the stat that will haunts Sunak. Nigel Farage’s entry into the campaign helped solidify the voting intentions of…

Read More Read More

I thought the Democratic nominee would be one of those relatively risk free markets where Biden would be the nominee with a few savers on Harris and Whitmer. I know I am not the only PBer who will end up in the poorhouse if Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom become the Dem nominee or if we see President Obama or President Newsom in January 2025. This betting market is aging me. If you’re entering this market as a newbie, I…

Read More Read More

I suspect Sunak will continue as leader until his replacement is elected, from a betting point of view the bookies are quite clear interim leaders do not count as Sunak’s successor so don’t go wasting your money on IDS replacing Sunak. As an aside Jim Callaghan remained as Labour leader for eighteen months after his general election defeat to the Tory party’s first woman leader. TSE

If Barack Obama comes out and says this publicly then it is game over for Biden if it already isn’t, Betfair has moved sharply. In my humble opinion other than Jill Biden only Barack Obama could persuade Biden to withdraw. The Betfair market movement today seems to back that up. TSE

I think punters are slowly realising that two failed assassination attempts on Gerald Ford didn’t help him win the 1976 presidential election. The frequent crossovers between Harris and Biden is fascinating. TSE

The two things that stand out for me is the Lib Dems having such broad popularity which if they maintain until the next election means they should do well with tactical voting. Secondly why simply adding the Reform and Tory vote shares in polls and thinking that is the way for the Tories to win again is a deeply flawed idea. TSE

it is often said winners of Tory leadership contests win because they aren’t somebody else. IDS and William Hague won because they weren’t Ken Clarke, John Major won to some extent because he wasn’t Michaael Heseltine in the eyes of many Thatcherites, whilst five years later Major won because he wasn’t John Redwood and I wonder if 2024 will see a repeat. Suella Braverman only has two flaws, everything she says and everything she does, whilst Kemi Badenoch has nothing…

Read More Read More

I had a private discussion with a few friends before the election and I said the Starmer premiership might be derailed/impacted if the Donald Trump wins the presidential election this year, his new running mate is what I was talking about. I expect the new Trump administration to sell out Ukraine, that is inevitable as night following day, and J.D. Vance’s comments are a pointer to that. If Putin succeeds in conquering Ukraine then he won’t stop there and with…

Read More Read More