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I am not sure there’s any value in these markets. There’s too much ego involved for this to work even before we consider Nigel Farage inability to work well with others. Would Nigel Farage really want to allow the man behind the Boriswave into his party? As for Nadine Dories, I am a huge fan of Nadine Dorries, as Ladbrokes allude to, her predictions for next Tory leaders/exits are a real money spinner from a punter’s perspective if you bet…

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Whilst I will go to my grave saying conveyancers aren’t lawyers this isn’t a good look for Angela Rayner, punters certainly agree. What will ultimately cause Rayner’s downfall is the hypocrisy angle and the fact she’s blaming her advisers who are fighting back and making Rayner look at best disingenuous. TSE PS – Hat-tip to TheUnionDivvie for the headline

Despite being potentially four years away, some people, particularly on social media (I know) think Reform will win the next election, I have my doubts, for the following reasons As we can see from the above polling from YouGov (which is from a longer series of posts) that voters would prefer a Labour/Starmer led government rather than a Reform/Farage led government after the next election. We saw this kind of polling between 2010 and 2015 when Labour often led by…

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The Guardian and others report Angela Rayner has admitted that she underpaid stamp duty on her £800,000 seaside flat, after coming under intense pressure to be more transparent about her property arrangements. The deputy prime minister has referred herself to the prime minister’s ethics adviser after confirming she will have to pay more of the property tax. She incorrectly paid the lower rate on the apartment in Hove, she said. Experts have said the bill could run to as much…

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If the public are right then punters might want to take the 8/13 Ladbrokes are, but the time value of money might not be attractive to some. TSE

I am a fan of Torsten Bell, whilst I do not agree with his politics, he was thoughtful during his stint at the Resolution Foundation so I am not surprised with this promotion to help assist with the next budget. Given the heavy emphasis Labour have made of Rachel Reeves being the first female Chancellor then in the short term I cannot see a man replacing her. If we do get a second Labour term (and anything is possible under…

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When will the Aberdeenshire hotelier’s second term end? The last few days the internet became very excited about Donald Trump absence and health. I am not reading too much into this, for example speculating on someone’s health based on an enhanced photo is like relying on a Scottish subsample, it is inherently unreliable. There are plenty of markets on when Trump’s second term will end/will he complete a full term, these are markets I am avoiding because I think it…

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During Iain Duncan Smith’s tenure as Tory leader the BBC pointed out the inaccuracies in his curriculum vitae was inaccurate and it helped damage him and on a cumulative basis helped end his leadership. Like Rachel Reeves and her CV issues I don’t think this will be a career ender on its own but other issues will. Any Tory MP looking to oust Kemi Badenoch have more ammunition. My expectation for exit being in 2026 hasn’t changed because of this…

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