In seven weeks time is election day, my prediction is that as things stand that Kamala Harris will win the popular but Donald Trump will win the electoral college vote although overnight 538 says Harris wins 61 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Post your predictions in the comments. TSE
One of the biggest overreactions in this market was in the immeediate aftermath after the first assassination attempt. The reason I felt this was a massive overreaction was that Gerald Ford was on the receiving end of two attempted assassination attempts and still lost the 1976 election. It appears punters have understood historical precedent. TSE
As a general rule in politics if you’re going to rely on non voters to win you an election then your campaign is in trouble because there’s a good reason these voters are perpetually non voters however Donald Trump has a good track record when it comes to non voters. In 2020 he persuaded over eleven million more people to vote for him than did in 2016 which was a genuine shock to me. Joe Biden persuaded nearly sixteen million…
The Lib Dem conference starts today and I think the Tory conference will attract a lot of attention with the beauty parade featuring the final four leadership contenders. TSE
Like the dodo, Zeppelins, and mullets, cash will end up going the same way. TSE
Other than Rasmussen all the post debate polls show movement to Harris/Harris ahead so no more debates could help Trump. TSE
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But America is a place where going negative in elections is an artform. TSE