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If I were Robert Jenrick I would be sharing this finding from JL Partners to my colleagues pointing out the public see Kemi Badenoch as useless as the left hand side of the Countdown clock. I am wondering if backing the 5/2 that Ladbrokes are offering on 2025 being the year Badenoch is replaced might be value, previously my expectation was 2026 if the Tories finish behind Labour and Reform in the Scottish and Welsh devolved elections. TSE

I suspect if Elon Musk (and Donald Trump) try to intervene in British politics it will backfire, Rupert Lowe will be best advised to swerve an endorsement from the The Fast & The Fuhrer. TSE

TSE

TSE

But I still think punters are wrong, if Labour look like being eclipsed by Reform then I’d expect Sir Keir Starmer to stand down before the election and let somebody from the Labour side to take over. TSE PS – The Times have lifted their paywall so it is worth reading this story about Dominic Cummmings meeting with Nigel Farage on trying to unite the right, click here.

Picture: Recent vandalism carried out at Donald Trump’s golf course in Scotland. There has been a lot of wishful thinking when it comes to Scottish independence on both sides such as devolution killing Scottish nationalism stone dead or Sir Keir Starmer becoming Malleus ScotNatorum at the 2024 general election. On the other side of the argument, inter alia, Brexit/Boris Johnson as PM/the pandemic/certain Supreme Court rulings would inexorably lead to Scottish independence and perhaps my headline will join that ignominious…

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As Lord Ashcroft can attest by-election polling can be very challenging so I always remain sceptical about all by-election polling but there are some hope for both Reform and Labour in the supplementaries. Best PM polling usually has an incumbency bias so is only notable when somebody other than the incumbent PM leads so Nigel Farage will be chuffed to have a clear lead in the constituency. Labour will be encouraged that most people in the seat expect Labour to…

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The latest polling from Ipsos brings some good news for Sir Keir Starmer with his ratings improving but the most important polling is showing support for rearmament even if it means higher taxes and/or cuts to public services. TSE