I thought Burnham’s intervention yesterday would backfire and there’s certainly been that as we can see with Labour MP Neil Coyle’s tweet and Number 10 comparing Andy Burnham to Liz Truss. TSE
I would caution about reading too much into MRPs this far from an election, when the original MRP was published in 2017 it was stated by the academics behind it that MRPs become less accurate the further they are away from an election and become more reliable in the six to nine months before the election. As I noted in the previous thread, tactical voting against Reform could push them well away from a majority. TSE
One of the uncertainties about the next election is how tactical voting will play out, fortunately there is some analysis out there and should worry Farage. The Times reports Electoral Calculus compared the number of projected seats if everyone voted with their primary voting intention, with the number of projected seats if tactical voting were taken into account. Under tactical voting Labour would gain 42 seats on its tally from people voting with their primary intention, taking its estimated total…
Dear Labour MPs Can you explain to me the plausible route(s) Andy Burnham becomes a member of parliament before the next general election? Until you can then I will continue to lay Andy Burnham in the appropriate markets. Wanting Burnham to replace Starmer now is a bit like casting a eunuch as a porn star, it just want won’t work, I suspect Burnham’s intervention may weaken Starmer and see him replaced before Burnham becomes a member of parliament. Actually I…
TSE
I find this polling fascinating as I feel there is the possibility of the Lib Dems potentially eclipsing one if not both of Labour and the the Tories at the next election. As somebody who is a fan of the 2010 coalition I am surprised that it is the fourth most cited reason but then it might be caused left wing voters from Labour and the Greens upset that the Lib Dems put the Tories in power. If I were…
After reading this article by Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg I am about to do the following The reason I am so confident about this is Trump’s really poor ratings with British voters even before we consider the logistical and age related challenges of Trump standing to become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. TSE PS – Choosing a picture to accompany an article is a joy few have experienced but what on earth is going on in the picture the…
I can understand why 2026 is the favourite in this market from William Hill. If as expected Labour are utterly banjaxed in next year’s local and devolved elections there will a clamour for changes to be made by Starmer and sacrificing your Chancellor might be an option. If Rachel Reeves handles the upcoming budget badly then I can see why people would want to pile on the 2026 exit date as well. I think the value might be in 2028…