politicalbetting.com

There are some Tories who think an interest rate cut will help them in the polls as mortgage costs come down yet this polling points to the exact opposite happening, I think there’s a couple of things driving this. Firstly if mortgage costs do come down a bit they will still be substantially higher than when the perpetuator of an antisemitic trope Liz Truss became Prime Minister so the financial hurt is still real. Secondly as we can see with…

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I like this analysis by Tom Calver of The Times. My key takeaway is from the final tweet is how accurate the polls are two weeks before the election. The other key takeaway is the polls always narrow once the election is called which is something punters and everybody else should remember lest it lead to panic/pessimism/false optimism depending on your view point. Betting on a hung parliament now appears to be a courageous decision in the Yes, Prime Minister…

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Since the voting system changed I haven’t bet heavily on Eurovision other than to occasionally lay Le Royaume-Uni. I cannot see any value on current prices but I will enjoy the annual bit of European unity and cultural enrichment. TSE

This is the second poll since Humza Yousaf’s announcement that he was going to resign and it is another poll showing the SNP falling back in the polls. I would wait until we have first poll conducted entirely after John Swinney became First Minister before making definitive pronouncements. I would also consider the Holyrood polls a bit of an irrelevance at the moment, the result of the Westminster election in any direction could alter voting intentions there particularly if the…

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I have been bemoaning for months about the lack of constituency markets but we do have the first constituency market for the next election, after a fashion. Bob Blackman is defending a majority of 8,170 over Labour and I struggle to see how we will hold on if the current polls are close to being accurate but people who know the seat better than I might be able to shed if the 3/1 is value. Sadly Ladbrokes do not offer…

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If a Prime Minister and his party is a long way behind in the polls they will try and give themselves enough time to turn it around. I have repeatedly stated that any PM that held a general election campaign that straddled the Christmas and new year period would get gubbed in the polls however I am now leaning towards to a January election. Sunak thinks he needs time to turn things around before he is indelibly regarded as worse…

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As we can see from the chart above showing the Betfair overall majority market over the last ten days last week’s elections have reinforced the expectation abour Starmer winning a majority. Natalie Elphicke’s defection has left the market unmoved. TSE

About four hours ago if you had asked me about the chances of Natalie Elphicke defecting to Labour I would have replied with ‘There’s more chance of Suella Braverman defecting to Labour’ but here we are and David Gauke sums it up perfectly. In the short term I suspect the damage will be greater for the Tories as the defection gives off an air of decay, a bit like the last day of Rome with less fornication and even less…

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