Ordinarily when a Labour leader polls circa 33% at a general election it triggers a leadership election however in one of those statistical quirks like Sir Donald Bradman’s test average, no matter how many times you look at it thinking it must be a mistake it turns out be right, Starmer won 411 seats and a 174 seat majority with a 33.7% share of the vote. The story in yesterday’s Times about Starmer looking to change the voting system for…
The survey was conducted Aug. 17-20 using a voter list of 801 registered voters nationwide. It was carried out by Braun Research and has a simple sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The bulk of the fieldwork took place before the Democratic Party convention so it is possible the next poll from this pollster could see an even bigger Harris lead. TSE
After the shellacking the SNP received last month and coupled with the fact the SNP will have been in power for nineteen years in May 2026 it feels inevitable that the SNP would lose the next Holyrood election but a poll showing them to be the largest party in Holyrood in 2026 seems a bit counter-intuitive. I respect Norstat as a pollster, going back to their Panelbase days, but any poll that shows Reform winning eight seats at Holyrood screams…
Graph from Betdata.io TSE
My strategy for laying Kemi Badenoch in the race to succeed Sunak is that Tory MPs will ensure she isn’t in the final two but if that assumption turns out to be wrong then I will be going to the poorhouse. YouGov have an excellent track record in Tory leadership elections so I trust this polling implicitly, in some of the other head to heads it shows Robert Jenrick might be misunderestimated by the betting markets TSE
If Harris and Trump bring the same energy that they both showed last night to the debates then Trump is going to struggle, badly. TSE
This polling isn’t atypical and it makes me confident that the Democratic Party are going to at least win the popular vote in November and more than likely the electoral college Kamala Harris looks like an inspired choice, just look at how enthusiasm has surged after she became the nominee. My theory is everybody loves an elite West coast liberal lawyer. TSE
Much like the time Captain Renault was shocked to discovered gambling was taking place in Rick’s Café Américain, I am similarly shocked to learn that RFK Jr’s, a man backed by some of Trump’s biggest supporters, is set to pull out of the White House race because the polls now show RFK Jr is taking more votes from Trump than the Democratic Party. I suspect the benefit to Trump will be minimal in votes but in a close election minimal…