This week is key to the Tory leadership contest as the four candidates make their pitch at conference, as we saw in 2005 one good speech can upend a race. Sadly for Kemi Badenoch conference so far has gone suboptimally for her with her comments about maternity pay which her opponents have seized upon as her Andrea Leadsom which has meant Badenoch has to spend most of yesterday explaining her comments, and to quote Ronald Reagan, if you’re explaining then…
It is an interesting parallel. TSE
For some time many of us have derided Rasmussen for their highly partisan ways in a way that seems alien to us this side of the pond where the British Polling Council rules apply. This week’s story about how Rasmussen’s election law breaking coordination with the Trump camp is no surprise to me but it does have important betting implications. Nate Silver’s website continues to include Rasmussen in their averages whereas 538 removed Rasmussen some time ago, if you’re betting…
Sadly for us punters there is no by-election as Rosie Duffield will sit as an independent MP. Duffield has had issues with Starmer that predate the election, for Starmer he must hope she is an outlier. TSE
Thanks to Audible I am listening to Lord Brady’s autobiography and it is a fascinating read by the man who oversaw four Tory leadership elections in six years and told Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss their time was up as PM. This interview is worth a watch. TSE
One thing I am now betting heavily on is Harris to the win the popular, She is currenly 1.28 on Betfair so that is a 28% return in just over five weeks. TSE
It’s not going terribly well for Sir Keir Starmer KC as Prime Minister and whilst I think the recent revelations about Lord Alli’s donations by the next general election will cost Labour as much the Ecclestone scandal did at the 2001 general election it is worth pondering who might succeed Sir Keir if he were to fall under the metaphorical bus or stand down quicker than anticipated. I think the value might be Ed Miliband at 100/1 as next Labour…
With the new Labour government led by Starmer proving to be the biggest disappointment since the Rings of Power there is time for Labour to recover by the time of the next UK general election there may not be enough for Labour to recover in Scotland by the time of the Holyrood election in 2026. I was expecting the SNP lose power at Holyrood in 2026 because of their general performance in the eyes of voters (plus they’d have been…