Biden slips sharply in the WH2024 betting after more memory lapses
Time for him to end his vanity trip
The SNP’s lead in Scotland down to just 7%
The above maps show what happened in Scotland at the last general election. As can be seen the SNP was totally dominant with LAB reduced to a just single seat. A new Scotland poll from Ipsos just out suggests we should expect something very different at GE2024. The SNP vote lead is down to just 7%. However, this is down from a 12-point lead in May 2023 and a 10-point lead in November 2023. Voter preferences are broadly similar to…
Today’s front pages
LAB fancied to make more by-election gains in the Feb 15th contests
There’s been very little betting interest in the two Tory by-elections defences that take place on February 15th. The assumption is that these will be two easy victories for LAB that will take to 7 the number of GE2019 CON seats that have gone red during this parliament. Above are the GE2019 outcomes which point to smaller swings being required than other LAB gains this parliament Mike Smithson
Punters give Trump a 79% chance of winning every state primary
The Smarkets rules for this bet are: Mike Smithson
Will GE2024 produce a majority seats winner with a minority of votes?
The report notes: “In 2010, First Past the Post delivered us a coalition government, the first since 1945, under a system designed to produce single-party majorities. In 2015, First Past the Post gave us the most disproportionate election to date with a majority government secured with under 37 percent of the vote share. In 2017, despite over 80 percent of votes going to just two parties (the highest combined vote share since 1970), First Past the Post could not deliver a majority…
Will Sunak still be PM at the general election
Every week or so it seems we get a new rumour about plots for a different CON leader to be in place at the general election. This, of course, requires that there are enough Tory MPs ready to demand a confidence vote and for that vote to go against the incumbent. I think the Smarkets betting chart has this about right with about a 16-17% chance that he won’t be there. I’ve always felt that the big problem Sunak has…
What’s happening with the polling “don’t knows”
Mike Smithson