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Will UKIP break through in the locals?

Will UKIP break through in the locals?

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Rob Ford looks at the possibilities In a recent post, Mike noted that the Conservatives may be pushing the immigration issue to defend themselves from defections to UKIP. We agree that UKIP pose a real threat to the established parties at this year’s local polls, but UKIP supporters are not merely grumpy old Tory right wingers. In a recent study with Matthew Goodwin (Nottingham) and David Cutts (Manchester), which can be found here I examined the UKIP electorate at the…

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Jonathan asks: Is anybody involved in the AV battle?

Jonathan asks: Is anybody involved in the AV battle?

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Why’s there no sign of activity on the ground? We’ve been debating the AV referendum on PB for more than a year. Well finally it’s here! With less than a month to go, the sun is out and the campaign proper has started. Let’s share reports from the front. Have you made up your mind? Is the march of AV campaigners deafening? And has your passion for AV or FPTP forced you out on the street? To get the ball…

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Are members of the coalition simply exhausted?

Are members of the coalition simply exhausted?

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Jonathan looks at the toll of being in government David Cameron looks tired.  At the last PMQs the Prime Minister was not on top form. Arguably he has started to show symptoms of exhaustion. Other ministers are faring little better. It is perhaps understandable. Even before Libya, the workload undertaken by this administration was daunting. After less than one year in office is this government already exhausted? At PMQs this week the Prime Minister was not at his best. He…

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Andy Cooke asks: Where have the Lib Dem voters gone?

Andy Cooke asks: Where have the Lib Dem voters gone?

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Meeting the Boojum The YouGov Budget poll provides an opportunity to investigate where the Lib Dems from 2010 have gone. Regardless of the fact that different pollsters have found different levels of support for cuts/Coalition economic competence/blame levels, when we look internally in a poll which provides breakdowns by 2010 vote and current preference, we should (hopefully) be able to track some of the net churn. So, in the YouGov poll, the first thing we see is that either the…

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Jonathan’s Sunday Slot

Jonathan’s Sunday Slot

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Labour meets the Four Horsemen Opposition is hard. In the past month, Labour was rudely reminded of the weakness of opposition and just how difficult it will be to regain power. There are four political horseman of the apocalypse that can doom any opposition party. In March, Labour received visits from all of them. Fortunately for Labour, their visits came early, weren’t fatal and the party should learn from the experience. Who are they? Irrelevance. Opposition parties rely on the…

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Guest slot by Moses: What’s the end game in Libya?

Guest slot by Moses: What’s the end game in Libya?

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Could UN 1973 have other benefits not initially apparent? When a leader threatens the people with ‘no mercy’ it is inevitable that some form of an International response would be forthcoming. The International community could not again stand idle and do nothing. The lessons of Kosovo have been learned, the method of implementation qualified by the experiences and errors of Iraq but an ‘elephant in the room’ of Bahrain and perhaps even Zimbabwe still do remain and will need to…

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Are the NHS reforms a bridge too far?

Are the NHS reforms a bridge too far?

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Jonathan’s Sunday Slot Is the Coalition doing too much to reform the NHS? Last May it embarked on reform at a frenetic pace. No area of government has been left untouched. Arguably its agenda is more ambitious than any government since 1945. But does trying to do everything at once incur serious risks? Cracks are already showing. Ministers look tired. Can Cameron hold things together and will his NHS reforms prove a bridge too far? The coalition programme is already…

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Can Nick surprise us again?

Can Nick surprise us again?

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Jonathan’s Sunday Slot…a bit late! It has been a truly dire week for the Liberal Democrats. It became clear that the AV referendum could fail, now that No2AV is making progress in the polls. The party fell from second to sixth in the Barnsley by-election; an incredibly poor result, perhaps without precedent. More worryingly, the election also saw UKIP emerge as a plausible third party choice and apply pressure on the coalition from the right. These are dangerous times for…

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