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Antifrank on why prospective 2015 losses are being overstated 1. The Lib Dems won’t fight a national general election The Lib Dems, unlike the Conservatives and Labour, will not seriously be trying to win a general election. They will be trying to hold their current seats (or if polling improves, get a few extra). They’re going to be fighting seriously in 100 or so seats. On current polling, that number may halve. Seats which get disproportionate effort are going to…

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The Revd Peter Ould marks your card Let’s get some preliminaries out of the way. As regards selection, the Archbishop of Canterbury is selected by the Crown Nominations Commission which is made up of lay, clergy and bishop members elected by the General Synod, together with some other co-opted and appointed members. You can see the current list here, though it is likely to change before the appointment of Rowan’s Successor. As far as I can see there is only one…

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PB 2012 competition predictions now out Mitt Romney is headed for a win in today’s GOP caucuses in the Hawkeye State, will win the New Hampshire primary and the Republican presidential nomination – but will then lose to Barack Obama in the battle for the White House in November, according to the findings from the Politicalbetting 2012 Prediction Competition. Rick Santorum is seen as the leading “not-Romney” candidate – but trails by a country mile in predictions for the eventual…

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Can you foresee what’ll happen in the political world in 2012? With the new year less than a day old but with Iowa already at fever pitch, it’s time to make your competition predictions for what could be a huge year for political and economic events around the world. As before the competition is being hosted by the Election Game. If you would like to take part in the Game, the 2012 season is now underway – the Leaders &…

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Were your 2011 picks crystal clear or “through a glass darkly?” Congratulations to Oliver who finished 29 points ahead of Jim Lowe with Dan Tor in third place in PB’s annual prediction competition – the full table with all players is available here, as well as an Excel spreadsheet showing the detailed breakdown of results. These were the questions from a year ago. The first section looked at key posts as at Christmas 2011, and the first three questions were…

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Will 2012 bring tests for all three party leaders? First up in January David Cameron needs to make a judgement call on a tricky little situation involving Aidan Burley MP. The Conservatives are currently investigating the situation that resulted in the MP for Cannock Chase being present at a Nazi-themed stag party in a French Restaurant, praising the Third Reich and allegedly hiring the costume. To make things worse Burley, now shorn of his PPS role and of future Ministerial…

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