Browsed by
Author: David Herdson

Should this be the moment for UKIP?

Should this be the moment for UKIP?

And if not, are they condemned to eternal obscurity? The Euro-elections in 2009 were close to a perfect storm for the minor parties. The electoral system, the (un)importance of the election, the Expenses scandal engulfing the main parties and the availability of candidates to vote for meant that all did well but UKIP especially so, finishing ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems. Come the General Election 11 months later, they were back in low single figures. The events since…

Read More Read More

Will the European question bring Cameron down ?

Will the European question bring Cameron down ?

How does the Coalition navigate a new EU treaty? Considering that domestic matters are the bread and butter of politics, it’s surprising how often foreign affairs play a significant part in their leaving office. Of the last four, Thatcher and Major both failed to navigate divisions over Europe, Blair never recovered from Iraq. The combination of the referendum vote in parliament this week and the possibility of a new treaty to increase the institutional control within the Eurozone should therefore…

Read More Read More

Ministerial resignations – A Punters’ Guide

Ministerial resignations – A Punters’ Guide

How to tell when they’ll stay and when they’ll go One of the best rules of thumb for political betting is that unpredictable events don’t happen as often as popular memory (mis)remembers – or put another way, the value is usually against a resignation, leadership challenge or other like happening. The flip side is that sometimes, like with Liam Fox’s resignation, they do. How best to identify the exceptions? Ministers generally resign either because they’ve done something wrong or because…

Read More Read More

Libya – the end game?

Libya – the end game?

BBC News Where does this leave Libya, the Arab Spring and UK politics? With unconfirmed reports that Gadaffi is captured, injured or even dead, the Libyan revolution looks to be almost complete. It still leaves the Middle-East in a state of flux though. Egypthas not had the promised elections, Syria remains in ferment, Bahrain unstable and other leaders will be watching warily. Domestically, Liam Fox may well be cursing his (largely self-inflicted) luck on the backbenchers that Gadaffi wasn’t found a week…

Read More Read More

Nighthawks – open for business again

Nighthawks – open for business again

Nighthawks open thread Continue discussion here for overnight developments, as tomorrow’s papers’ front pages are released, and as the next in the series of debates for Republican hopefuls takes place, which is sponsored by CNN and begins at 1am BST (8pm EST). David Herdson

Will Fox return to the cabinet?

Will Fox return to the cabinet?

Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic How long will Cameron keep him on the backbenches? David Blunkett, Peter Mandelson (twice), Michael Heseltine, Anthony Eden, Harold Wilson and Winston Churchill all did it. They are among the few to return to the cabinet after having previously resigned for something other than electoral defeat. After Fox’s departure this week, the question is whether he’ll buck the odds and join the select band. It is not likely to be an easy route. After nearly…

Read More Read More

Who won and who lost from the Fox-hunt?

Who won and who lost from the Fox-hunt?

Wikimedia Commons Where do the week’s events leave the Next Tory Leader market? After the kill, politics moves on quickly. With Fox having resigned, the media interest in what his friend Adam Werritty did, knew, and where the funding for it came from is likely to dwindle rapidly. There may be further revelations this weekend because the media will have invested in the investigation but that should then be that. Even if Gus O’Donnell’s report is made public, the coverage…

Read More Read More

Will the Lords euthanize Lansley’s bill?

Will the Lords euthanize Lansley’s bill?

Is the government about to lose a major reform? This has not been a good week for the government. The ongoing difficulties of Secretary of State for Defence, Liam Fox, are far from over as the investigation into both his own and his friend Adam Werrity’s conduct continues. This alone will make for a difficult Prime Minister’s Questions. It could be about to get worse. The Conservatives went into the last election with plans to empower local providers of many…

Read More Read More