As we reach the final week of campaigning before the local elections next Thursday, time for a final look at some of the barometer councils where the results may not only set the immediate media tone but give a pointer as to the state of public opinion with an election within the next nine months.

I’ve chosen eight councils currently controlled by the Conservatives but there are all-up elections this year due to boundary changes add a level of interest.

I’ve already looked at Nuneaton & Bedworth, Fareham and Havant.

One closer to home (well, mine) is Epping Forest which includes the current end of the Central Line, Epping and the end of the line until 1975, Ongar. Epping Forest District Council has a Conservative majority of 10 with the party holding 34 of the 58 seats. The Loughton Residents have 13 seats, the Liberal Democrats five, four Independents and two Greens.

The new Council will have 54 candidates based on 18 three member Wards.

The Conservatives have 48 candidates and are guaranteed six seats, Labour are standing 22, the Liberal Democrats 15, the Loughton Residents 14 (they are guaranteed one seat), the Greens four and other parties six including a single Reform candidate.

I’m indebted to local expert @HYUFD for the following thoughts:

The Conservatives should just hold on but it will be close in EFDC this year with the all-out elections. There are a lot of independent candidates from North Weald to Chigwell and Grange Hill, Loughton and Theydon Bois and Epping who could pick up a protest vote. The LDs are also targeting gains in the Epping West and Rural seat and Theydon Bois and Passingford and looking to hold seats in Epping East and their 1 incumbent in the new Rural East seat. Loughton is dominated by the Residents group.

The Tories would be doing very well to get 30+ seats, they need 28 for a majority and 27 for control with the chairman’s vote

It’s hard to argue with that but what will likely save the Conservatives (as it may in other areas) is the inability of the non-Conservative parties to find full slates of candidates. This may well enable Conservatives to get home even in split Wards.

In Basildon, the troubled Conservative administration has maintained control and currently has 26 of the 42 seats on the council with Labour on nine, Independents on six and a single Wickford Independent.

The Conservatives are standing 38 candidates, Labour 26, the Liberal Democrats 20, Greens 12, Independents 10 and 11 others including, once again, a solitary Reform candidate.

In terms of vote share, the Conservatives won 39% in 2023, Labour 23% and the Liberal Democrats 13%.

This could also be very close and again the Conservatives getting close to a full slate may be critical especially in Wickford. I think it likely the Conservatives will remain largest party but lose their majority with Labour making the gains.

Still in Essex, we move to Harlow where the Conservatives have a majority of nine over Labour holding 21 to the opposition 12. In 2023, despite being outpolled by Labour across the council, the Conservatives took a seat from Labour to increase their majority. Will they be so lucky in this round of all-up elections?

Unless there are big local factors at play, it looks a tall order for the Conservatives to hold majority control and I expect Labour to take control possibly reversing the current totals in their favour.

As for the other two councils, I think Labour will be very disappointed if they fail to take Redditch ending six years of Conservative rule

Finally, we come to Gloucester, another fascinating contest. The seats were last fought in 2021 when the Conservatives won 47% and took 26 of the 39 seats. The Liberal Democrats polled 28% and won 10 seats to become the opposition as Labour collapsed to just three seats with 18% of the vote.

Since then, the Conservative majority has been whittled away by defections and by-elections and they go into the election with 21 seats, the Liberal Democrats have 14, Labour has two and there are two Independents.

On that evidence, you’d think the Liberal Democrats were in a strong position to take control but I’m less certain. The eighteen Wards are a mixture of two and three member contests.

The Conservatives are standing a full slate of candidates, the Liberal Democrats are standing 36 and Labour 32. There are 19 Independents, 11 Greens and seven others.

The reason this may be a long way from a penalty kick for the Liberal Democrats is or are a number of apparently popular Conservatives who might split the vote in some of the Wards. That being said, it’s hard to see the Conservatives keeping their majority and while Labour will advance, will it be enough to stop the Liberal Democrats taking control? I think it may be.

Final Thoughts on the Eight to Follow:

Basildon – No Overall Control

Epping Forest – Conservative Hold

Fareham – Conservative Hold

Gloucester – No Overall Control

Harlow – Labour gain

Havant – Conservative Hold

Nuneaton & Bedworth – Labour gain

Redditch – Labour gain

That would be my baseline for a good but not spectacular night for Labour and a bad but not catastrophic night for the Conservatives.

Stodge